Monday, Jan. 15, 1996

AND NOW A WORD FROM OUR SPONSOR

By Richard Stengel

For the next five weeks, TV viewers in New Hampshire and Iowa will see more of the G.O.P. presidential candidates than they will see of David Letterman and Jay Leno combined. The candidates have already aired more ads in the battleground states than in any primary campaign in history. Richard Stengel analyzes some of the most telling ones.

BOB DOLE WHAT YOU SEE: With black-and-white photos of Dole as a young lieutenant in the background, his wife Elizabeth tells the moving story of his wounding in World War II and the long road back.

WHY YOU'RE SEEING IT: Only when Dole was desperately behind in 1988 did he reluctantly trot out his war wounds. Now he's practically flaunting them. The ad is meant to show Dole as something other than a Beltway big shot, to humanize the chilly candidate and contrast him with his putative opponent, a fellow who agonized about getting out of the draft. The ad harps on Dole's character largely because character is Dole's only message, and his staff hopes to compare his with that of the current occupant of the White House.

STEVE FORBES WHAT YOU SEE: Head shots of Forbes and Dole. Narrator accuses Dole of supporting taxpayer-funded pensions for Congress. Text: "Bob Dole. Washington values. Steve Forbes. Conservative values."

WHY YOU'RE SEEING IT: Forbes is using his promiscuous ad campaign ($7 million in 12 weeks alone) to cinch the No. 2 spot behind Dole. This no-frills ad seeks to distinguish Forbes as both the outsider and the true-blue conservative (at least compared with Dole's modulated conservativism). Curiously, Forbes' face is his fortune: his cheerful awkwardness marks him as the authentic outsider in the race. Dole, by the way, never voted to increase taxpayer-funded congressional pensions, only congressional pay.

PHIL GRAMM WHAT YOU SEE: Two mirror images of Dole. A sinister-sounding narrator says, "Remember Senator Straddle. He cut deals, and voters rejected him," adding that Dole has "caved in" on the budget.

WHY YOU'RE SEEING IT: This go-for-the-jugular ad harks back to Bush's similar slam against Dole in 1988. The Gramm ad, which (unfairly) characterizes Dole as willing to settle for an unbalanced budget, will air immediately in South Carolina, which Gramm has touted as a must-win state. First rule of negative advertising: it also hurts the one dishing the dirt. Gramm is delaying using this ad in New Hampshire, where his negatives are already uncomfortably high. He'll wait until the homestretch.

PAT BUCHANAN WHAT YOU SEE: Pictures of a smiling Pat with Reagan and Nixon. Text: "Through triumph and tragedy ... I have served the two most important Presidents of our time ... I'll never be afraid to lead."

WHY YOU'RE SEEING IT: Attention, New Hampshire couch potatoes: Stand up and salute! Pat is gunning for second place in New Hampshire, and this patriotic, feel-good ad is designed to remind conservative voters that Pat is the candidate of 100-proof conviction, unlike the wishy-washy front runner and that rich-boy publisher who is spending his way up the opinion polls. It also reminds New Hampshire voters that Pat was the nervy David who tilted at the Goliath of George Bush only four years ago.

LAMAR ALEXANDER WHAT YOU SEE: Flanked by two television monitors showing the negative commercials of rivals, Alexander tells the camera, "These guys act like they're running for president of the fifth grade."

WHY YOU'RE SEEING IT: Shucks, there's something down-home and friendly about that good ole boy Lamar. Alexander is in desperate need of breaking through the clutter. The ad is designed to feature him as the easy-listening alternative to his shriller, more dour rivals. He's banking on his likability, trusting that voters have forgotten that he was the first Republican to go negative months ago. Another problem: his schoolteacherish diction seems designed to appeal to fifth-graders, and they can't vote in primaries.