A REAL KILLING

By JOHN ROTHCHILD

BACK IN MARCH, IT WAS EStimated that the O.J. boomlet could add $200 million to the nation's gross domestic product. After seven additional months of merchandising, that figure begins to look a tad low when you account for all the revenue streams: legal fees; at least $60 million in gross revenues from various books; $5 million to $10 million in O.J. phone cards; $5 million in Simpson statuettes; $1.5 million in O.J. trading cards; Al Cowlings' 900 line--the whole affair begins to rank on a par with the annual sales of a mid-size company. A tentative accounting:

Simpson is out an estimated $6 million to $10 million, most of which goes to his lawyers. While he has recouped a hefty amount from the sale of various O.J. products, it's still not clear whether his bout with justice will turn a profit. The question remains: Can he write off the trial as a business expense?

The county of Los Angeles is out almost $10 million in trial-related expenses, but the economy of the city has got at least a $4 million shot in the arm from visiting reporters, plus enough tourists last summer to move L.A. up on the list of popular U.S. destinations. The region couldn't have done better if it hosted a Miss America pageant.

The O.J. case hasn't helped Ford because, after an initial spurt, the sale of white Broncos actually declined during the first eight months of the trial. Nor did that case have a noticeable effect on the Akita dog business. The people at Hertz tell me their Simpson connection has not altered normal growth in profits and revenues one way or the other. Orange juice has enjoyed record sales, but a spokesman for the industry doubts the ex-defendant can take any credit.

There has been no reported surge in crossings from illegal immigrants trying to tune in to an O.J. broadcast, so the case has no implications for NAFTA.

Ted Turner is a major O.J. beneficiary. Thanks to the trial, the viewership at CNN surged--prompting an estimated $45 million windfall in ad revenues--just at the moment his company was angling to be sold to Time Warner, the parent of this magazine. The dealmakers were smart enough to realize that O.J. wasn't forever, but healthy revenues certainly added to Turner's allure. Already, Ted Turner has sent a $50 million finder's fee to Mike Milken, and the numbers suggest that Simpson deserves the same.

What about the macro view? Economists have to ask themselves: Does the boost in the GNP from O.J. output make up for the drag on the GNP from millions of people glued to their TV sets and staying away from the stores? According to my statistical reckoning, Americans put in more man-hours watching the Bronco chase than it took to build the entire Panama Canal.

A number cruncher has calculated that just five minutes a day of O.J. office gossip would have cost the country $27 billion in lost productivity, but surely there's been more gossip than that. Add in the daydreaming, lapses in concentration and visits to psychiatrists for post-O.J. trial letdown syndrome, and you have a serious recessionary undertow.

Only time will tell whether the end of this ordeal will put the ring back in the cash register, as devoted viewers emerge from their dens and head groggily for the malls, with disposable income that has not been spent since the trial began.

--With reporting by Charlotte Faltermayer/New York

With reporting by CHARLOTTE FALTERMAYER/NEW YORK