WHY DOLE HASN'T LOST IT

By Michael Kramer

After Bob Dole upset George Bush in the 1988 Iowa caucuses, the Vice President's troops contrived a desperation strategy to provoke Dole to anger. "Make him blow, revive his 'hatchet man' image, make him seem too meanspirited to be President," recalls a top Bush aide who is now advising Dole. "That was the goal, and it worked." Every whiff of scandal, every scurrilous charge, every distortion of the Senator's record was lobbed at Dole with fury. The cumulative effect was decisive. After Bush won the New Hampshire primary, Dole angrily told Bush to "stop lying about my record" and was instantly toast.

You can see the same tactics at play today. Every one of Dole's 1996 G.O.P. opponents is swiping at the front runner with increasing ferocity, especially Phil Gramm, the Texas Senator who staged a surprising tie at the Aug. 19 Iowa straw poll most everyone expected Dole to win handily. Of course the Iowa ballot was phony; anyone who bought a ticket could vote, even non-Iowans, and some confessed to having voted more than once. It was still a test of organizational strength, but it was only the first part of a two-pronged strategy: rough Dole up and then cause him to lash out. So everywhere Dole went last week--from Arizona to South Carolina to Georgia, to Mississippi and Florida--Gramm nipped at his heels. In unsolicited call-ins to radio shows and newspapers along Dole's route, Gramm touted his showing and urged reporters to taunt Dole about Iowa. They did, but Dole didn't take the bait. "Iowa wasn't my personal stumble," Dole told me last week. "My organization should have done better. We should have won. But my stumble--and it could do me in, I know--will only come if I lose my cool. I haven't yet, and I won't."

Where does this leave the 1996 G.O.P. race? Dole retains a commanding lead in the polls, but he's slipping a bit. In the latest TIME/CNN poll, conducted after the Iowa nonsense, Dole's share of the vote among likely Republican-primary voters fell seven points, to 35%. But his two closest rivals fell too--Gramm to 9% and Pat Buchanan to 8%. The big winner was "not sure," up nine points to 25%, which may be why Newt Gingrich is again musing about running for President. The Iowa results, the Speaker said last week, reveal a "remarkably open race."

It's wise, however, to remember Republican history. As the real voting draws nearer, the front runner invariably loses some market share, and the electorate expresses its dissatisfaction with the field. And then the front runner captures the prize anyway, as the G.O.P.'s leaders have done ever since the party began holding primaries almost 50 years ago.

It's true that Gramm, who at this point is best described as a struggling candidate with lots of money, can cause his opponents fits. While Dole is often too sardonic for his own good, Gramm can be truly mean, so anything is possible from him, and his sizable bankroll means he could stay in the hunt till the end. But the story to watch right now is Dole's positioning and demeanor. Earlier this year, in an attempt to win the backing of far-right activists, Dole abandoned some moderate views on such hot-button issues as gun control and affirmative action. His rivals screamed "flip-flop," but his lead held steady. Since then, with an eye on a general election campaign against Bill Clinton, Dole has stood where he's really always been--in the conservative mainstream.

His advisers keep wondering about tacking rightward--and it's their job to consider every contingency--but Dole has resisted such thoughts so far. As he prepared to speak at a National Guard convention last Wednesday, some of his aides suggested that Dole revive his call to make English America's "official language," a long-standing Dole position that ranks about midway on the G.O.P. right-wing's wish list. No, the candidate told his advisers, that would be "inappropriate" for an audience concerned with military matters. In stead Dole reiterated his essentially centrist themes, as he did all across the South last week. Dole kept saying he wants to "rein in government and return power to the people," but he also kept saying "government does a lot of good things" and that voters should look around them and see those whom government programs have helped. "I don't want to scare people," Dole says, "and I won't take them over the edge. We've got to downsize, but I'm not one who'd take a wrecking ball to government."

That's not red meat for the right, and it might cause Dole some trouble on the road to the nomination. But it reflects the majority view and improves his ultimate prospects. "Look," says Dole, "first, it's what I believe. And second, getting the party nod is nice, but it doesn't mean much if in the end you don't get to live in the big house."