THE SUNSHINE BOYS

By JEFFREY H. BIRNBAUM/WASHINGTON

Pity the Republican candidates. in this presidential campaign, they will be spending less time plying the pine-smelling living rooms of New Hampshire or enjoying the watery coffee of Iowa diners. Instead, they will be tramping through the fevered political swamp of Florida, where they will have to contend with issues like Fidel, the Gaza Strip and Medicare, Part B. That's because, now that Senator Robert Dole has spooked his opponents into believing he's invincible on the early New England and Midwestern turf, Florida -- with its Hispanic, Jewish and elderly voting blocs -- is emerging as the must-win primary state.

Senator Phil Gramm, for instance, expects to be a strong runner-up in Iowa and New Hampshire but to break away in the Sunshine State. "We've got to win Florida,'' says Senator Gramm's top strategist, Charles Black. Gramm's aides are meeting methodically with all 150 Republican clubs in the state; Dole's aides are setting up steering committees in every one of the state's 67 counties. Part of what motivates this courtship is that Florida's Republican convention in November will hold the largest straw poll, just over two months before any voting takes place up north. And on March 12, the Florida primary will be the biggest wild card of the Super Tuesday set of elections. On that day Gramm hopes to win his own state of Texas, and Lamar Alexander must finish first in his native Tennessee. But if either is to break out of the pack, he must also beat Dole in Florida, a winner-take-all contest for 98 delegates who represent 5% of the total heading to the national convention. Says Mark Merritt of the Alexander campaign: "Before this thing is over, we'll be airlifting sun block to Lamar in Miami."

So eager are the Republican suitors to prove their Florida credentials that Gramm, California Governor Pete Wilson and Alexander each raised a whopping $100,000 for the state party just so they could speak to a G.O.P. gathering last month, even though they knew House Speaker Newt Gingrich would steal the show simply by turning up. Wilson also chose to conduct his early focus groups in the state, and is almost claiming it as a second home: his father lives in West Palm Beach. All told, Republican candidates have made more than three dozen trips to the state this year.

President Clinton is also intent on winning Florida, which he lost by 2 percentage points in 1992. He is wooing voters there with his policy of blocking Cuban refugees, his anticrime rhetoric and his softer-than-the-Republicans stand on Medicare cutbacks. Vice President Gore kicked off the whole Clinton re-election campaign with two fund raisers in the state last month, and he, his boss and Hillary Clinton expect to make at least four trips there over the next five months. Any excuse will do: two weeks ago Clinton showed up to meet his new nephew and play some golf with his brothers-in-law.

--With reporting by Michael Duffy/Washington

With reporting by Michael Duffy/Washington