INVITATION IN THE MAIL

By Bruce W. Nelan

The two silver-haired Prime Ministers put their proposals on the table in Belfast last week as little more than a reasonable next step. No announcement of a done deal. No imposition of an agreement. No threats. Just an invitation to all the political groups involved in the vicious struggle between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland to sit down somewhere and talk. Even the name of the document was self-effacing: Frameworks for the Future: a shared understanding between the British and Irish governments to assist discussion and negotiations involving the Northern Ireland parties. ``Read it, study it, think about it,'' said Britain's John Major. It offers, said Ireland's John Bruton, ``the best opportunity in a generation for a lasting political settlement.''

Similar opportunities have been spurned time and again by the absolutists on both sides in Northern Ireland. The day of the announcement, Ulster Unionist Party member David Trimble stomped off the set of a television interview when the reporter said Sinn Fein official Martin McGuinness was going to join the discussion from Belfast. The Protestant Unionists have been condemning the framework document ever since bits were leaked to Britain's Times newspaper five weeks ago, and last week they denounced it as a sellout. Even if Protestant leaders do not support the proposals, early poll results show that many citizens on both sides do. One poll last week indicated that 51% of all respondents, Catholic and Protestant, believed the new plan would bring peace. Only 24% thought it would not. Major had more than 30,000 copies of the document printed so Northern Ireland's citizens could make up their own minds.

The proposal does not mean the centuries-old Irish problem is about to be solved. Sinn Fein nationalists, who welcomed the plan, still vow to see the Irish Republic absorb the six counties of Ulster into a united Ireland. The Protestant Unionists stand firm on the status quo: Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom.

But Catholics and Protestants have now tasted how sweet peace can be. Since the Irish Republican Army agreed to a cease-fire that went into effect last September, terrorist bombings, shootings and the heavy presence of British military patrols have been vastly reduced. A great many citizens do not want to see a return to the violence that has killed more than 3,000 people since the British army was sent into Northern Ireland in 1969 to stop sectarian clashes. The international community has offered enticing financial incentives. Major and Bruton are betting that even if the Unionist politicians walk out on the process, they will not find thousands of Protestants lined up behind them shouting, as they have in the past, ``Ulster says no!''

While the authors took pains to portray their 43-page document as a set of talking points binding no one, it was contentious enough to require four years of negotiation. London and Dublin each surrendered some bedrock from their historic stands. The Irish government will move to amend the articles in its constitution that claim jurisdiction over Ulster. Britain will rewrite its laws to permit Northern Ireland's voters to decide whether to remain with Britain or join the Republic of Ireland.

Protestants reacted especially bitterly to the part of the plan proposing institutional changes that would give the Irish Republic a role in the North. London said it would establish an elected 90-seat Northern Ireland Assembly to return limited home rule to Ulster for the first time since 1974. Members of the new Assembly would join with parliamentarians from the Irish Republic in a new cross-border body to coordinate issues that affect both, like fishing rights and agricultural and European Union policies, and to establish cooperation on tourism, transportation and energy. Unionists loathe the idea of granting Ireland even a trace of influence. The radical Rev. Ian Paisley slammed the idea as ``a one-way street to Dublin.''

Declaring himself a staunch Unionist, Major insisted Northern Ireland could never merge with the republic ``in defiance of the will of the majority.'' For now, any referendum in the North would keep Ulster a part of Britain because Protestants make up about 60% of the population. But demographics are changing, and sometime within perhaps the next 30 years, Catholics could match or surpass Protestants number. The prospect may impel Unionists to consider the more flexible tactics the framework offers.

Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams, a prime mover in the new push for peace, said the Major-Bruton document represented progress because it ``embraces an all-Ireland character and deals with the general notion of one island.'' That was enough to satisfy Adams, who has been eager to get into negotiations. But Sinn Fein first has to prove its cease-fire is permanent; the I.R.A. will be expected to respond to Britain's demand that it start turning in the arms it has stashed away.

Unionists who have wrecked peace prospects in the past have a more difficult calculation to make this time. Many Protestants seem ready to let go of violence and despair. So there is a good chance that their leaders will eventually consent to sit down at the table with Sinn Fein--even though they intend to bring a framework document of their own with them.

--Reported by Tony Connelly/Dublin and Barry Hillenbrand/London

With reporting by TONY CONNELLY/DUBLIN AND BARRY HILLENBRAND/LONDON