A Wing and a Prayer

By JAMES CARNEY/WASHINGTON

In the haze of winter, the new Congress settles in and, to the horror and gratification of Democrats, the Republicans take their mandate and go berserk. In the Senate Banking Committee, new G.O.P. chairman Alfonse D'Amato annoys the public with endless hearings on the Whitewater affair, stirring sympathy for Bill and Hillary Clinton. At the same time, Republican proposals to pluck children from their indigent mothers and lock them up in orphanages turn voters against G.O.P. ideas for welfare reform. Meanwhile, radicals like Senator Jesse Helms take over the G.O.P.'s foreign policy and defense strategy, riling allied countries with their nativism and voters with their disrespect for the Commander in Chief. Then the G.O.P.'s attempts to deliver on the tax cuts and other promises of the "Contract with America" threaten to aggravate the budget deficit, sending stock markets into a downward spiral. In the end, G.O.P. extremists drive their party so far to the right that their new coalition splinters. And the Democrats dream on . . .

IN WISHFUL MOMENTS, EVEN BILL Clinton is tempted to think that the Republican mandate will self-destruct and allow him to keep pushing his old agenda. But reality intruded last week, when the President was reminded that he will not be so lucky as to face only the flat-earth Helmsians of the G.O.P., but also must contend with centrist hard bargainers like Senate Republican leader Bob Dole. When the Senate Republican leader wanted to make Administration officials jump, he merely had to fire off a few faxes. Sent while the President was vacationing in Hawaii, the faxes amounted to ransom notes, lists of demands to be met in return for Dole's support when a lame-duck Congress votes this week on the world-trade pact known as GATT. On the receiving end were White House chief of staff Leon Panetta, Treasury Secretary Lloyd Bentsen and U.S. Trade Representative Mickey Kantor. Within 24 hours, all three were seated across from Dole, sipping orange juice and coffee in a private room at the Palladin, a tony Washington restaurant. Why meet there instead of at the White House? Because the Palladin is situated in the Watergate complex where Dole lives. The Senate's new majority leader had summoned some of the President's top aides to his home, and they came.

Dole didn't get everything he asked for, but he got enough. Four days later, last Wednesday, he stood basking in the sun in the White House Rose Garden as praise for his decision to support GATT washed over him in waves. "I want to thank you personally for all your kindnesses," Kantor gushed. After expressing his own "appreciation" for Dole, Clinton excused himself, leaving the man he may face in the 1996 presidential election in effective control of a White House press conference. "It was a little sickening," a White House official admitted afterward, "but at least it showed Dole was willing to compromise."

Clinton still mulls over the meaning of his party's historic losses, sometimes at agonizing length. His meetings with advisers on the elections and what to do next "start in the morning and go through the day," says a senior official. Americans are now eager to see which vision Clinton will adopt: the Democratic daydream, in which the opposition sinks itself, or the Republican reality, in which Clinton will sink unless he tries to find common ground with centrist elements of the G.O.P. It will be nearly impossible to reconcile the two. The President will have to jettison many of his ambitious domestic-policy proposals -- or have them rewritten beyond recognition.

Over the past several weeks, Clinton's top advisers, led by Panetta, have held scores of meetings to devise a strategy to resurrect the President's fortunes in time for his re-election campaign. But disagreements among Clinton aides have muddied the message. The result is that, for now, the White House seems ready to pursue two different, often conflicting strategies at once. Underlying Clinton's ambivalence is a conflict among his top advisers over the lessons of the midterm elections. "Everybody's got different polls to show different things as to what happened," says a senior official. "That debate is still out there."

For the most part, Clinton and Panetta have come down publicly on the side of the President's more moderate advisers, who argue that he must regain the public's confidence by promoting a centrist legislative agenda and seeking cooperation with moderate Republicans. "It's important to have bold initiatives, not simply play defense," insists an advocate of what's being called the "forceful center" approach. "If we're going to be a part of the debate, we need to have our best ideas on the table."

This approach is grounded in the notion that if he hopes to recover, Clinton must, as a top adviser put it last week, "return to his roots and ((to)) what got him elected as President." At least in public, nearly every relevant Administration official hews to the line that Clinton should seize the political middle and cast himself again as a New Democrat, as he did in 1992. In the context of the 1996 campaign, this is known as the "51% Strategy." In other words, Clinton must actively woo the political middle in order to win a two-candidate race in 1996. In the meantime, positioning himself as a centrist makes it easier for Clinton to fend off possible challenges from the moderate wing of the Democratic Party. Nebraskan Senator Bob Kerrey, considered the most likely such challenger, last week declared he had no interest in running against Clinton.

But many of the same officials who tout the centrist line suggest privately that the White House's longer-term strategy, if it can be called that, is to rely on the Republicans to lurch into extremism and thereby discredit themselves. Another scene in this dreamscape is an independent candidacy in 1996 by Ross Perot, Pat Buchanan or another champion of the right, who would pull votes from the Republican nominee. This scenario, pressed by left-leaning White House officials who are increasingly in a minority, argues that Clinton need only appeal to liberal Democratic voters to win with a plurality, as he did in 1992. This has been dubbed the "37%-to-43% solution" and lessens the threat that Clinton would be challenged on the left by Jesse Jackson.

"He should let the Republicans eat their own young," a senior White House official says. "It's already happening." Even the sober Panetta sounded open to the prospect of G.O.P. self-destruction. "A strong temptation for Republicans," he said during a lunch with journalists, will be "to take the path of extreme policies and views like those of Jesse Helms." If the Republicans go on an ideological bender, Panetta added as he lunched on a turkey sandwich and couscous, Clinton will be able to ask Americans, "Which party in the end is going to best defend the interests of working families into the future?"

Republicans, however, aren't inclined to be so accommodating, which means Clinton cannot afford to disengage entirely from battles in Congress. For now, the White House is likely to pursue potentially conflicting objectives: 1) cutting deals where it can, while 2) trying to isolate the Republicans as extremists and even nudging them rightward when no compromise seems possible. Toward those ends, the Clinton strategy is emerging on several fronts:

Negotiate on Welfare Reform. Republicans have turned the issue into a conservative touchstone, galloping to the right of Clinton with proposals to cut off welfare payments to teenage mothers and turn over children who are not cared for to orphanages. Clinton aides wave polls showing public resistance to the plan.

Shape the Debate on the Balanced-Budget Amendment. Instead of opposing the constitutional amendment directly, the White House seems likely to emphasize the popular spending programs -- student loans and the FBI budget -- that the amendment would slash.

Take the Initiative on Tax Cuts. With Republicans promising tax breaks for investors and families, Clinton advisers hint that the President will revive his campaign promise of a middle-class tax cut, albeit a modest one. If Republicans engage in a bidding war for larger tax cuts without corresponding cuts in spending, the specter of higher deficits and interest rates may scare the financial markets and restrain the G.O.P. "If the loose cannons get hold of this thing, it will blow up," says Panetta.

Think Small on Health Care. In a clear sign that Clinton will now pursue a scaled-back program with a slow phase-in and lower profile, Panetta installed Clinton policy advisers Robert Rubin and Carol Rasco, both market-oriented moderates, in charge of shaping the White House's new health-care-reform proposal. While officials insist that Hillary Rodham Clinton will continue to be a "spokesperson" on the issue, her role has clearly been diminished.

Shake Up the Staff. But When? Rumors of imminent personnel changes, in both the White House and the Cabinet, have ricocheted around Washington since the elections. A report that Bentsen would soon step down as Treasury Secretary met with a quick denial last week. Some White House officials who believe a wholesale overhaul is necessary doubt the President's resolve. Says one: "I just don't know if he's capable of firing people, no matter how much they deserve it."

In terms of his mood, Clinton is still a long way from comeback mode. On one of the legs of his recent trip to Asia, Clinton complained about the hardball tactics and personal attacks his Republican opponents have used against him since he became President. Democrats, he suggested, may have to start playing just as dirty. "He was very bitter," recalled a participant.

Even so, it would be out of character for Clinton to wallow much longer in self-pity. "I can't argue that the situation isn't bleak," insists a loyalist, "but it's always a mistake to underestimate Clinton." The President could commit the same mistake, however, by overestimating the prospects for Republican self-destruction. If he avoids making a course correction, he may fail to satisfy not only centrist Republicans but also the majority of American voters who clearly have rejected the way he has taken the country thus far.

With reporting by Michael Duffy and Dan Goodgame/Washington