Thanks But No Thanks, Mr. Prez

By Michael Duffy/Washington

Ask White House officials why Bill Clinton is unpopular, and the answer is almost automatic: Americans, they say, don't give him credit for their improving economy. Though growth is robust, inflation is tame and unemployment is at a four-year low, the officials argue that the uneven nature of the expansion has kept Clinton's approval ratings stuck in the mid-40s.

In fact, the opposite is true. Americans are giving Clinton credit for the economy -- and that's a measure of his political weakness. Without those big third-quarter profits and factories at full tilt, his advisers say, the President's standing in the polls would be much worse. "They do give him credit," concedes Stan Greenberg, the President's pollster. "It may not be the first thing off people's lips, but the fact is that his ratings on the economy are the strongest of any we monitor with the exception of crime."

The thanks is oddly grudging. A TIME/CNN poll last week revealed that 53% of Americans said the Clinton Administration deserved credit for "recent improvements in the economy." But the President's overall popularity remained low: 44% of Americans said they approved of Clinton's handling of his job, while 47% disapproved, just a four-point improvement from six weeks ago.

Clinton's aides say he has only just begun to attack problems that took decades to develop and that have no quick solutions: trade imbalances, the federal deficit and wage inequality. Moreover, they say, the investments Clinton has made in education, training and infrastructure won't pay dividends for a few years. "People know the country is recovering," Greenberg says. "They're watching to see if this is a recovery they can depend upon."

As a result, Clinton has been carefully choosing his words to match the public's wait-and-see attitude. Last Tuesday in Detroit, after ticking off a long list of economic achievements, he paused and admitted that the impressive-sounding numbers about booming exports, better-paying jobs and lower taxes for the poor have not liberated most Americans from a sense that their money is tight and their tomorrows are uncertain. "Now, you may say," said Clinton to an audience of Ford autoworkers, 'Well, that's all fine, Mr. President, but my life is still pretty tough,' or 'My neighbor doesn't have a job,' or 'I'm still not sure what the future holds.' Well, no one can promise to repeal the laws of change that are sweeping through the world today." Explained an Administration official: "He insists on being realistic."

So does Dorothy Young-Johnson, 27. A physical therapist in Atlanta, Young- Johnson and her husband, a bank manager, earned $72,000 last year but feel as if they're getting nowhere. In the past 12 months, her employer has boosted her pay 5% but increased her work load 40%. After a 12-hour day, she looks after the couple's two children at night before settling down to her college- credit courses and then going out again to make evening visits to her patients. The couple's social life consists of an evening outing a month -- with the children. Young-Johnson doesn't complain, but she thinks it will not get better soon. "Everyone is picking up the slack," she says. "I don't want my kids to go without, so I just keep on pushing. The costs of everything keep going up. You're just going to keep working forever. I don't think it's going to get better."

With reporting by William McWhirter/Chicago