A Not-So-Hot Potato

By Michael Duffy/Washington

J. Danforth Quayle has a funny way of introducing himself. Last time around, he presented his little-known face to America on a hot New Orleans afternoon in 1988, just hours after Vice President George Bush announced that he would choose the junior Senator from Indiana as his running mate. The news, which stunned even Bush's top aides, had hardly sunk in when a hyperexcited Quayle threw an arm around Bush's shoulders during a riverboat rally later that day and shouted, "Go get 'em!" The inelegance of the moment set the tone for things to come.

Now Quayle is trying to reintroduce himself, and Round 2 is looking no more auspicious. In a book to be published this week, Quayle takes aim at two potential rivals -- former Secretary of State James Baker and former Housing Secretary Jack Kemp -- as well as the high command of the 1992 Bush re- election campaign. Reports of the coming broadsides left veteran Republican operatives wondering once more about Quayle's judgment. "It's not reintroduction," said a top Republican consultant. "It's self-immolation. He's poured gas on himself and touched it off."

The publisher has readied an extraordinary 350,000 copies, yet Standing Firm does not appear to contain many fresh disclosures. Only the uncharitable tone is striking. Quayle is hardly the first to notice that Brent Scowcroft, not Baker, was the real architect of most of Bush's foreign policy successes. Nor is it news that Kemp can be an aimless talkaholic or that Baker looks out for No. 1. Even Quayle's closest advisers lament that the book lacks anything approaching a Quayle vision of the future. "It's a funny book," said one of them. "It's less of a positive conservative agenda for the future than a look back."

So is the book a launching pad for a presidential run in '96? Asked two weeks ago about his intentions, Quayle told reporters, "I've thought about it. I will think about it long and hard over the summer." But the book's shoot-first, ask-questions-later approach has led a number of Republican officials to think -- or is it hope? -- that Quayle will not run. They are bolstered by reports from veteran Republican financiers that the former Vice President is not yet exciting the big donors who will play a major role in picking the nominee in 1996. A top California lawyer who was once squarely in Quayle's camp now ponders whether to urge him not to run. "Quayle," said another consultant, "is the person most Republicans think should run for Governor of Indiana."

But if Quayle doesn't run, who will? Bill Clinton's continued stumbles, particularly in foreign policy, have swelled the likely field. A current rundown:

JACK KEMP. The former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development under Bush has lined up top fund raisers and will relocate his political-action committee from Washington to strategically important California this week. He becomes the instant front runner if he jumps in, but campaign veterans are worried that he lacks the discipline to hold the pole position for long.

DICK CHENEY. The former Defense Secretary and White House chief of staff has been sounding out operatives about key jobs. Cheney exudes steadiness and generates warm receptions wherever he goes, but there is doubt even among those who are prepared to work for him about whether he really wants the job.

PHIL GRAMM. The Texas Senator is a powerful fund raiser and works tirelessly on behalf of G.O.P. candidates. Respected for his toughness and his ruthless resistance to federal spending, he remains abrasive and little liked. As a Reagan White House veteran put it, "Gramm hasn't had a personality transplant."

BOB DOLE. Republicans agree that Dole has no competition as the party's top spokesman, but opinions are divided about his intentions. Most believe that Dole, who will be 73 in 1996, will not run for reasons of age.

LAMAR ALEXANDER. Working quietly out of Nashville, the former Tennessee Governor has organized a network of Republican groups to discuss policy each month. In July, he will begin a 40-day, 8,000-mile drive across the U.S. He is "thinking seriously about running," he says.

More than half a dozen other players appear far less eager. Former drug czar and best-selling author Bill Bennett would like to be President but would probably take a pass if Kemp gets in. Former Secretary of State Baker has told allies to keep their powder dry, and is believed to be waiting to see what his old pal Cheney does. Pete Wilson, currently seeking re-election as California Governor, has ruled out a race, but could be formidable if re-elected. A host of other Governors -- Massachusetts' Bill Weld and South Carolina's Carroll Campbell, for example -- may run for Vice President.

The wild card in the mix is Colin Powell. The former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has been writing a book, making carefully chosen speaking engagements and keeping his profile low. Top G.O.P. operatives fantasize out loud about a Powell run, knowing the former general would steal votes from Clinton's thin base of minorities, women and trade unionists. "If Powell wanted the nomination," said a G.O.P. strategist, "he probably could get it." No one is saying that about Dan Quayle.