THE POLITICAL INTEREST FEELING THE HEAT

By Michael Kramer

Score one for pressure. Bill Clinton has flexed some muscle in the Caribbean, and Haiti's military regime seems close to crying uncle. Backed into a corner, the strongmen who have ruled Haiti since overthrowing President Jean-Bertrand Aristide in 1991 appear to want a face-saving way out of the crisis they themselves sparked. The tale begins last Thursday evening. With visions of Somalia in mind, the staff of Haitian army commander Raoul Cedras drafted a ''letter of reconciliation'' to be presented to the U.S. What was offered, TIME has learned, contravened the key elements of the Governors Island accord signed in July -- the agreement that called for Cedras and Police Chief Michel Francois to resign. Aristide could return, the note proposed, but Cedras and Francois would remain in their posts, responsible only to an ''independent'' Prime Minister they had every intention of controlling. Aristide, it was clear, would be a political cripple. The letter was never sent. On Friday afternoon, when U.S. envoy Lawrence Pezzullo met with Cedras, the Haitians knew the fleet was on its way. According to American and Haitian sources, Pezzullo wasn't about to bargain. ''You said you were someone who could deliver,'' Pezzullo told Cedras. ''You said your word was good. Now you look stupid and foolish. I'm not saying you've done all the bad things that have happened, but I lay it all on . you anyway because you've always said that you're responsible for order in Haiti.'' Taken aback, Cedras was silent. Then, says a person present that day, ''he tried some country lawyer games about how to interpret Governors Island, and Larry walked out.'' Late Friday night, TIME has been told, Cedras and Francois tried another ploy. A new letter was drafted and this time actually sent. Cedras and Francois would resign after all, but not until Aristide nominated their successors and they were confirmed by the Haitian Senate. Parliamentary confirmation has a nice, American ring to it, but Haiti's Senate is not its U.S. counterpart. ''They fear for their lives, and quite reasonably so,'' says an American diplomat. ''Since the coup, they've done only what Cedras and Francois dictate.'' Under Cedras' scheme, the Senate could reject numerous nominations before agreeing to people he and Francois find acceptable. Once again, Aristide would be a figurehead, a symbol the world could toast as Haiti's real power was held by goons. Having heard nothing by Saturday afternoon, Cedras seemed to budge again. In an interview with TIME's Ed Barnes, Cedras waved a copy of the U.N. Charter as he declared the U.S. embargo ''illegal.'' Nevertheless, he said, ''I don't want to renegotiate Governors Island. Just a few interpretative problems'' need resolution. ''We've given up a lot but the other side has given nothing.'' ''Right,'' says a senior U.S. offical. ''And we won't. We're not negotiating. We're not considering any letters. We're not talking interpretations. They've got to live up to what they've signed. These wackos run to defensive positions when you stand up to them. They're not dumb. They went to school on Somalia. Now maybe they realize that Clinton needs to show some stickum some place, and that they're the ones that are going to get stuck unless they capitulate.'' And as of Saturday evening, capitulation finally seemed a possibility -- although, it needs to be said, the Haitians supposedly capitulated months ago. They should have been history last Friday and they're still hanging on.