How the Muslims Would Be Armed

Even if Bill Clinton can persuade a balky U.N. Security Council to open up an arms pipeline to the Bosnian Muslims, it will not be an easy operation. Administration planners have only just begun to look seriously at which weapons to send, who would pay for them and how they would be delivered to landlocked Bosnia. Light weapons could flow in quickly, but training on more sophisticated equipment could take weeks.

U.S. intelligence estimates that nearly one-third of the 50,000 Muslim forces do not have enough heavy weapons. Until now, they have kept fighting by stealing arms left behind by the Yugoslav army and clearing smuggling channels through Croatia. That means they mainly use old Soviet-bloc equipment, and to save training time, Pentagon officials say, the U.S. may attempt to tap those former Warsaw Pact arsenals for additional materiel. Slovak plants could provide T-72 tanks. Small arms, including the Kalashnikov AK-47 rifle, might be obtained from Afghan arms bazaars or a sympathetic stockpiler like Syria. To counter the Serbs' 105-mm artillery pieces and T-72 tanks, the Muslims could use Western-made counterartillery radar, which Washington would have to ( supply directly or through allies. The Pentagon would want to ship TOW antitank weapons and light armored vehicles -- fast, mobile carriers useful for keeping forces together -- as well. One nonlethal item of great utility would be tactical radios to improve Muslim command and communications. Since the U.S. is reluctant to get involved on the ground, it might turn to Turkey, which already smuggles weapons to the Muslims, to provide the necessary training advisers.

Who would foot the bill depends, of course, on who agrees to ease the arms embargo. If the Afghanistan war of the 1980s is any guide, the U.S. might lead the operation, then pass the hat. The Muslims' current smuggling operations suggest the best paymasters: oil-rich Islamic countries like Saudi Arabia and the gulf states that have already shelled out money to Bosnian Muslim businessmen, who then procure the weapons. The smuggling routes also suggest how the newly sanctioned equipment would wend its way to Muslim fighters. Arms are shipped or flown to the Croatian capital of Zagreb, then transferred into Bosnia by lighter aircraft and trucks. But all equipment must pass through Croatia, which has extracted a sizable portion of the weapons that cross its lands. This Croatian usury is unlikely to diminish.

If Croatia suddenly balks at being a stop on the pipeline, there are chancier options. Heavy equipment can be flown into the U.N.-controlled Sarajevo airfield -- at least until the Serbs close it down. Ammunition and light weapons can be parachuted into the region by the same C-130 aircraft the U.S. has used for humanitarian missions. With arms, though, the planes would have to fly lower to the ground to ensure that the weapons reach their pinpointed targets -- and do not fall into Serbian hands.