Bosnia Airlift Is Set; Will It Do Any Good?

IF THERE CAN BE SUCH A THING AS AN INNOCUOUS involvement in Bosnia, the Clinton Administration may have found it. Since first proposing a U.S. air drop of food and medical supplies into eastern Bosnia, the White House and Pentagon have made continuous modifications to head off trouble. Plans for fighter escorts were scrapped. U.S. C-130 cargo planes flying out of Germany's Rhein-Main air base were to make the drops at night from an altitude of 10,000 ft. or more, to minimize any chance of being hit by ground fire. And they were to be preceded by planes dropping leaflets telling ground forces what was about to be parachuted into their areas and when. Further, Clinton announced that the supplies would be dropped not just to Muslims cut off by Serbian siege and blockades from relief supplies but to everybody, "without regard to ethnic or religious affiliation." By week's end, with the drops set to begin, the operation had support from U.S. congressional leaders, allied officials such as Britain's John Major, and the U.N. Security Council. Even General Ratko Mladic, commander of Serb forces in Bosnia, indicated his troops would "tolerate" the airlift.

But skeptics doubt there can be any benign intervention, at least one that is also effective. Some supplies dropped at night from that high are going to fall outside target areas. Analysts are worried that Serbs may use the air drops as an excuse for again blockading truck convoys that lately have been getting through to some besieged towns in eastern Bosnia. Worst of all, there is a widespread fear that the U.S. will be pulled into deeper involvement in the Bosnian bloodbath. Serbs, or Muslims eager for American intervention, might shoot down a cargo plane, triggering a military response. One U.S. congressional staff member also draws a parallel to air drops of supplies to Iraqi Kurds in 1991; they proved ineffective, and the U.S. and allies had to send in ground troops to succor the Kurds. Clinton stoutly insists that the operation will be strictly temporary and that "it would be a great mistake to read this . . . as some initial foray toward a wider military role." Let's hope. (See related story on page 36.)