The Rebellious Soldier

By Richard Lacayo

THE FRAMED EPIGRAM IN COLIN POWell's office is from the Greek historian Thucydides. "Of all manifestations of power, restraint impresses men most." Restraint used to be the hallmark of Powell's own style as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Opposed though he was to using force against Saddam Hussein, he was careful in White House meetings before the war never to confront George Bush directly on the issue. But in his blunt dealings with the Clinton Administration over gays in the military and cutbacks in U.S. forces, Powell has been notably less restrained. The change has heated up an old question: Is the general plotting an advance into politics?

Powell may be the most admired man in Washington. In a recent poll his approval rating topped Clinton's by 10%. With eight months remaining in his term as Chairman, Powell's official position is that "my plans are to finish my tour as scheduled." But there are signs that his plans could change. He is rumored to have held job talks with the Carlyle Group, a Washington investment firm headed by his old mentor and boss, former Secretary of Defense Frank Carlucci. (Two other rumored Carlyle hires: former Secretary of State James Baker and Budget Director Dick Darman.) Powell, who lives in government housing, has asked a real estate agent to find a home for him in the $1 million range, a figure not ordinarily within the military pay scale. His aides claim that the general is just house hunting before his Sept. 30 departure from the chairmanship.

If Powell accepts the high-paying but low-profile investment job, that might be an indication that he's putting his political ambitions on hold. On the other hand, Powell's rough engagements with the new President suggest a man who is establishing a public identity for himself that goes beyond the portfolio of a military leader. The standoff over gays in the military has left some bitterness in the Clinton camp among senior officials who think that the general was guilty of something close to insubordination. In a meeting with Clinton after the election, Powell repeated his personal objection to lifting the ban. But the President-elect left the meeting believing that the general would not stand in his way. It came as a shock when Powell went public with his opposition during a Jan. 12 speech at the U.S. Naval Academy. "Colin really torpedoed our strategy," says a White House aide. "What you see with Powell is not always what you get."

Another conflict could begin in earnest this week, when Powell is expected to submit to the Secretary of Defense and Congress a report on restructuring the armed services. Its innocuous-sounding subject, "Roles and Missions," is a euphemism for one of the Pentagon's most contentious issues: how to eliminate duplicate capabilities among the service branches. That involves combustible questions like whether to maintain the separate air forces of the Marines and the Navy.

In a draft of the report, Powell's third, that circulated last week, the general makes few wide-ranging proposals. He opposes many minor changes that have been proposed by Georgia Democrat Sam Nunn, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, including selecting a single electronic-jammer aircraft instead of the separate models that the Navy and Air Force fly. Powell opts instead for managerial tinkering, such as his suggestion that military maintenance depots be combined. Critics close to Secretary of Defense Les Aspin suggest that Powell senses the obvious -- that the military services would blame him for radical changes -- and sees no point in picking a fight near the end of his term. "It's a lot easier for him to simply dump the issue in our laps," said a Clinton insider.

Another potential conflict involves Aspin's efforts to meet Clinton's promise to reduce military spending $60 billion over five years. That would require cutting about $8.3 billion from the $280 billion Pentagon budget proposed by the Bush Administration for 1993. Powell and Bush agreed last year to reduce all military manpower from 2.1 million to a base force of 1.8 million; Aspin is committed to cutting further, to 1.4 million, and thus far Powell has not dropped his opposition to the lower numbers. "Powell was in one Administration with one set of policies," says Carlucci. "You can't expect him to switch his views overnight." His defenders also describe him as the only man in Washington who knows what's necessary to maintain military readiness. "He's not morally opposed to lifting the ban ((on gays and lesbians))," says Richard Armitage, a former Defense Department official, "but is trying to show these guys how to do it."

Powell's critics say he was spoiled by working with former Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney, who permitted Powell to rule the military services as de facto Deputy Secretary. In the new Administration, the onetime Mr. Inside finds himself something of an outsider. To other observers, Powell is simply convinced that he won't be kept on in September. "He's been unusual lately," says defense analyst Barry Blechman. "It's like he's making it clear he doesn't want to be reappointed."

With reporting by Bruce van Voorst/Washington