From the Publisher

By Elizabeth P. Valk

Anyone who thinks that economists practice a dismal science has never been treated to the vivid commentaries of Allen Sinai. "It's the forces of darkness vs. the forces of light," he says, describing the tensions at play in the U.S. economy. "Hate vs. love, like in the original Cape Fear, but the love will win." Sinai, president of the Boston Co. Economic Advisors, was one of five experts who convened in New York City last week for a TIME economic forum. The meeting was part of a tradition going back to 1969, when the magazine began inviting top economists to gather around a table and divulge their forecasts about the recessions, recoveries and wrenching trends that sweep through the U.S. economy like weather systems. Among the panelists over the years have been such figures as Lester Thurow, a best-selling author and dean of M.I.T.'s Sloan School of Management, and Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.

The last time the forum took place, in late 1990 after the start of the current slowdown, the panel accurately predicted a protracted slump. This time the issues were just as pressing: Why is the recovery so abysmally slow, and what hope can be found in the economic proposals of George Bush and Bill Clinton? For his part, Sinai predicted a long grind, but saw bright spots emerging. David Hale, chief economist of Kemper Financial Cos., called for a combination of "Bush's trade policy with elements of Clinton's domestic policy." Dan Lacey, publisher of Workplace Trends, saw little in either candidate's policy to stimulate job creation. Gail Fosler, chief economist for the Conference Board, described consumer attitudes as stubbornly skeptical. Donald Ratajczak, director of the economic-forecasting center at Georgia State University, warned about the danger of trying to fix the federal deficit too soon.

Last week's forum was especially illuminating because the current recovery is such an odd, torpid one. "Of all these panels I've attended, this one was the best," says senior writer John Greenwald, who helped organize the session and wrote one of the cover stories. "Sometimes discussions of economic issues get bogged down in minutiae that can be eye-glazing." To its credit, the TIME panel provided a sweeping analysis of the troubled economy and of what's right and what's wrong about the candidates' programs to fix it.