A Spate of Bad Numbers

At least George Bush does not have to contend with the twin curses of double- digit interest rates and inflation that poisoned Jimmy Carter's 1980 re- election bid. Unfortunately for the President, the economic parallels with the last Democrat to occupy the White House begin to multiply after that. As Carter entered the final two months of his campaign, he faced a 7.5% unemployment rate. Bush is looking at 7.6%. In the fall of 1980, the nation's economy was dead in the water. Based on the latest round of indicators, so will it be for Bush, who finds himself saddled with numbers virtually impossible to correct before November.

Factory orders fell in July. So did sales of new homes, which went down for the fourth time this year, despite the lowest mortgage-interest rates in 19 years. Consumer confidence has retreated 20% since June, back to the depressed levels of March. Now the Census Bureau has reported that more Americans were living in poverty in 1991 than in any other year since 1964.

As bad as this news is for Bush, even more troubling is that so few correctives are available to him between now and Nov. 3. Hamstrung by an enormous deficit and a weak dollar, the President's one policy weapon, say economists, is his ability to convince the public that he has a credible / economic plan for the next four years -- something recent polls suggest he has not yet done.

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE

CREDIT: TIME Graphic

CAPTION: DOWN OR FLAT: Not much to cheer about in the numbers