The Barriers Come Tumbling Down

It survived snags over textiles, avocados and chickens and still faces a stiff test in Congress. After 14 months of almost nonstop and frequently contentious haggling, negotiators for the U.S., Canada and Mexico were poised to sign the North American Free Trade Agreement, which would bind 363 million consumers into the world's largest trading zone with a combined gross domestic product of more than $6 trillion.

The pact's big winner will probably be Mexico, which lags behind its trading partners in industrial development. Economists say Mexico could gain 600,000 primarily industrial jobs by 1995 as the agreement rolls back tariffs and reduces restrictive quotas that hobble the country's exports. Negotiators also expect the U.S. and Canada to profit from an explosion in sales to the Mexican market. But U.S. labor leaders argue that tens of thousands of American workers could lose their jobs as companies shift production to Mexico to cash in on industrial wage rates that are roughly one-sixth those north of the Rio Grande.

The Bush Administration views a completed pact as a major accomplishment and as something to boast about in the fall campaign. Industry groups will evaluate terms of the agreement and offer recommendations before it goes to Congress, where the debate promises to be contentious. Some Democratic lawmakers charge that the pact lacks safeguards for American jobs and want programs to retrain displaced workers and protect the environment. Congress is expected to delay serious discussion until after the elections and then put the deal to a vote sometime early next year.

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CREDIT: [TMFONT 1 d #666666 d {Source: U.S. Bureau of Census; DRI/McGraw Hill; United Nations; Ward's Automotive Reports; CIA; U.S. Dept. of Energy}]TIME Graphic

CAPTION: COLLECTIVE IMPACT