How Bush and Clinton Play The Israel Card

George Bush was never going to be a shoo-in with American Jews this year. In part because they traditionally vote Democratic, the President won less than a third of the ballots cast by Jewish voters in 1988, and he has been hard pressed to boost his standing much, even in the afterglow of the gulf war. In recent polls, only 20% of Jewish voters say they will vote for the incumbent. "It's what we call," admitted a senior adviser to the Bush campaign, "total alienation."

Many American Jews disapprove of Bush's strong-arm tactics toward Jerusalem, especially his demand that Israel freeze settlements in the occupied territories before it can obtain $10 billion in loan guarantees to resettle Soviet Jews. Bush is not about to back down -- unless Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin at least partly complies with the freeze. Even if that happens, Jewish voters are hardly likely to transfer their loyalties to Bush in return.

Democratic candidate Bill Clinton, however, opposes Bush's policy of linkage. By picking Senator Al Gore as his running mate, Clinton has allied himself with one of Israel's staunchest backers on Capitol Hill. Clinton hasn't explained how he would solve the settlements issue or what he would do differently on the peace front. Instead, he has been content to make the standard pledge to give Israel what it wants to boost his lead over Bush with this group of Democratic stalwarts and worry about the peace process later.

Bush, however, has his eye on a different prize. Tangible progress in the Middle East negotiations before November, his advisers believe, would heighten his standing with all voters. A breakthrough would not only benefit Bush and spotlight his diplomatic finesse at a crucial time; it might also help voters recall the foreign-policy expertise that is, so far, the heart of his claim on a second term. Besides, Bush has few other aces to play. As one campaign official puts it, "We may not get those Jewish voters back, but we can neutralize them."