Handicapping the Hometown Boy

By Janice Castro

Iowans may love favorite son TOM HARKIN, but last week on the eve of their caucuses, some of his neighbors were trading Harkin futures at just 8 cents. THE UNIVERSITY OF IOWA has been operating a futures market in presidential prospects for students, faculty and staff. In the winner-take-all gamble, top share price is $1; the average investment is $15. Traders at about 20 other college campuses, including UCLA, Caltech, Northwestern and the University of Virginia, will soon be able to play. So far, the market seems to be a better barometer than opinion polls. In 1988, the day before the election, Bush shares were trading 8 percentage points higher than DukakisU--almost exactly his victory margin in the popular vote. Currently, Clinton is the heavy favorite for the Democratic nomination, trading at 53 cents, followed by Kerrey at 14 cents. Tsongas is leading Harkin by nearly 2 cents; Jerry Brown started well at a penny but has fallen to 0.4 cents.

With reporting by Wendy Cole