Democrats: Tsongas' Surprising Surge

By LAURENCE I. BARRETT NASHUA

Paul Tsongas, Campaign '92's underdog of choice, passed a symbolic milestone last week. An aide to the Democratic front runner, Bill Clinton, suggested a reporter check out Tsongas' occasional lobbying activities on behalf of legal clients. Until recently the ex-Senator from Massachusetts was considered such a weak competitor that his rivals didn't bother to attack him. Now that his candidacy shows strong signs of surviving beyond the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday, Tsongas must take his turn as target. He regards that as a compliment.

"At the beginning," he quipped in an interview, "I was sort of irritated that no one bothered to look" for dirt. Of course he dealt with government agencies, Tsongas said, reciting a list of transactions known to anyone familiar with his legal career. Large liabilities still afflict his candidacy, but an ethics deficiency isn't one. Neither is meanness. Tsongas last Thursday followed Clinton and Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey before the same audience in Nashua. Reporters badgered all three about Clinton's latest problem -- the charge that he ducked military service during the Vietnam War. Kerrey exploited the opportunity to compound Clinton's difficulties, as did Iowa Senator Tom Harkin. Tsongas declined to follow suit.

Yet to the extent that Clinton suffers attrition in New Hampshire, Tsongas stands to benefit far more than Kerrey, Harkin or former Governor Jerry Brown of California. Since mid-January, as the others floundered, Tsongas has become Clinton's main challenger in the first primary. Favorable news coverage and his performances in televised debates have also raised him above asterisk status in national surveys. While New Hampshire polls continue to depict a skittish electorate, Tsongas' support is less volatile than that of his rivals, and in one survey late last week Tsongas held a shaky lead. "He's everyone's first or second choice," says Democratic chairman Chris Spirou. Thus Tsongas, the contender who reminds no one of a President, might squeeze victory out of the state's mercurial mood.

That prospect defies the early punditry that imprisoned Tsongas in the "second tier" of prospects. He is tunneling out of that dungeon with a gritty consistency that trashes conventional wisdom. His self-imposed "pro- business Democrat" label alienates many liberals, but Tsongas is gaining support among others by departing from party dogma. "They love employment," Tsongas says of traditional Democrats. "It's the employers they can't stand. They have never understood the link." Unions want a new law to protect the jobs of strikers. Tsongas opposes it on the ground that it would encourage confrontation. Most of the candidates favor a tax reduction for middle-class families. No, says Tsongas, because the deficit is strangling the economy, and succeeding generations will be stuck with the tab.

The economy's salvation, he insists, lies in restoring its manufacturing base, and that requires short-term sacrifice along with long-range strategy. "Lose me," he warns, "and your choice is which Santa Claus you want." This austerity line appeals to residents of a state leery of the promises- promises approach. Says David Moore, who directs polling at the University of New Hampshire: "There's a feeling that Tsongas is the one addressing the voters' central concern: jobs."

At every opportunity, Tsongas reinforces his image as Mr. Candor: "I have only one horse to ride -- truth. If I give that up, I'm just a Greek from Massachusetts who has had cancer." This tactic extends to volunteering the fact that he required the assistance of a media coach to spice up his oatmeal style. In the past month his performance has risen from dreadful to mediocre, but his TV spots still use an announcer's voice rather than his drone.

Another problem is that Tsongas lacks the money to advertise as often as his rivals. Affluent Greek Americans who normally contribute heavily to their own have been holding back. "The Greek money is frozen," Tsongas concedes. With ! his frail treasury, his need to concentrate on New Hampshire and his lack of a national network, Tsongas has been unable to do much spadework outside New England. A victory in New Hampshire would solve his anonymity problem, but even that boost would leave him struggling desperately when the action moves to the South.

Tsongas waves off such pessimism. He beat the lymphoma that drove him from the Senate in 1984. When he became the first announced Democrat in April 1991, skeptics predicted he would be an ex-candidate by last Labor Day. Now, says his aide Peg Connolly, "Paul is suffering a serious case of self- confidence." How confident? For months, he says in utter seriousness, he has been making a list of possible running mates and Cabinet appointees.

With reporting by Sam Allis/Hanover