New Hampshire

By LAURENCE I. BARRETT MANCHESTER

George Bush could have dispatched just about any political operative to New Hampshire to file his papers for the state's Feb. 18 primary. But the President chose his wife Barbara, whose shining silver hair and trademark pearls garnished a series of photo opportunities. The First Lady exuded her characteristic warmth and motherly concern as she assured local TV viewers: "Nobody suffers more than George about the economy."

Why would a sitting President, assured of the Republican nomination, add such a personal touch to this formality? Ask Pat Buchanan, the polemicist turned candidate, whose aggressive effort to shift the G.O.P. rightward threatens to siphon off enough conservative votes to embarrass Bush at the outset of what could be a tough re-election bid. Buchanan "deserves the Christopher Columbus award," quips Democratic state chairman Chris Spirou, "because he forced Bush to discover New Hampshire."

In the wake of Mario Cuomo's default, meanwhile, the six major Democratic candidates are looking to the Granite State as the first major showdown in what has suddenly become a wide-open scramble for their party's nomination. For now, the one clear winner is New Hampshire; after three years of dismal economic news, the locals can look forward to a quick-shot infusion of cash from the candidates and the hordes of journalists covering the contest. At least four of the Democrats will spend $530,000 apiece, the maximum allowed in the primary. On top of that, the Administration is weighing in with a welcome helping of federal money whose timing leaves little doubt about the political motives behind it.

Barbara Bush was only the first in a series of presidential surrogates sent out to stump at frosty shopping centers and on slushy downtown streets. Last week former White House chief of staff John Sununu popped up in his home state to make a show of unity with sometime rival Judd Gregg, Sununu's successor as Governor and a leader of the local Bush organization. Sununu, who has strong ties with conservatives, pronounced Buchanan out of step with mainstream Republicans. Next week Vice President Dan Quayle will spend two days stroking local voters. Explaining the stream of stand-ins, a Bush political adviser confides, "Everyone there is scared. New Hampshire is the worst-off state in the country, at least psychologically."

But New Hampshire's voters are accustomed to being wooed in the flesh. Though Bush two weeks ago granted a White House interview to Manchester's WMUR television station, he did not slow the momentum of Buchanan's energetic campaigning on the ground. So the President has decided to make his personal campaign debut in Portsmouth on Jan. 15.

He is not expected to arrive empty-handed. One possibility is that Bush will announce a new scheme to bring commercial activity to the site of Pease Air Force Base, the closing of which devastated the Portsmouth area. The Administration has already delivered a number of other pot sweeteners to New Hampshire. In early December the state received an accelerated payment of Medicaid funds that will balance its budget. The State Department has announced that a visa-processing office will operate on the grounds of the defunct air base. Meanwhile, the Small Business Administration has designated New Hampshire the first state to benefit from a lending program that will compensate for the shortage of commercial credit.

It is by no means certain that such largesse can quash the Buchanan threat. Governor Gregg argues that "the President has already overcome the initial hurdle" by showing he really understands New Hampshire's plight. But his father Hugh Gregg, a former Governor now running Bush's campaign in the state, concedes that "some of my best friends, good Republicans," are angry enough to consider a protest vote against Bush. Another hazard for Bush is that many orthodox Republicans might simply stay home, increasing the proportional clout of conservative ideologues who are Buchanan's strongest supporters. A poll published by the Concord Monitor last week showed Buchanan getting 30% of Republican voters, vs. 58% for Bush. That 30% -- against an incumbent President -- is a respectable showing, which Buchanan can build on with a deft campaign.

Last week the dogged challenger was out stumping on Christmas Eve. At a J.C. Penney in Bedford, he bought five pairs of socks, pointing out that when Bush made a symbolic shopping-mall foray recently it was in distant Maryland -- and that the President bought only four pairs. Despite his pluck and energy, Buchanan has severe handicaps: low budget, frail organization and an obsession with ideology that may confine his appeal to the right wing. If Buchanan concentrates his fire on Bush as an uncaring patrician whose feckless policies devastated New Hampshire's economy, he could attract some moderates and independents. But if he continues to fog that message with his vaporous isolationism and other right-wing fetishes, he will risk losing his chance to humiliate the President.

Although a strong Buchanan showing would send Bush a powerful symbolic message, it would have little real impact on the Republican nomination process. For the Democrats, however, New Hampshire is the crucial first hurdle. Unlike most recent elections, the Feb. 10 caucuses in Iowa will have little meaning this year because no one is seriously competing there against native son Tom Harkin. That leaves it up to Granite State voters to give the Democratic aspirants their first real electoral test.

Recent polls give a nominal lead to Paul Tsongas, the former Senator from neighboring Massachusetts, who benefits from his early start and his status as a New Englander. Those advantages may keep this sober, cerebral lawyer at the head of the pack in New Hampshire even though his prospects in later rounds are bleak.

His three strongest rivals -- Harkin, Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton and Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey -- all insist they must "do well" in New Hampshire. But none of them defines what that means for fear of inflating expectations. As these three candidates strive to gain a distinct image, the campaign will gain heat. For Kerrey, New Hampshire represents an opportunity to right himself after a rocky couple of months culminating in the replacement last week of his national campaign manager. Harkin, the most combative and liberal of the group, is expected to attack the centrist Clinton, whom Harkin views as his main rival in the coming months. Neither of the other two candidates, Virginia Governor Douglas Wilder and former California Governor Jerry Brown, appears to be gaining much traction in what looks to be one of the most fluid primary-season openers in recent memory.