Strains on The Coalition

By Howard G. Chua-Eoan

While governments around the world have rallied to join George Bush's anti- Saddam coalition, popular support for military involvement in the gulf is shallow even among some of America's staunchest allies. For other countries tangled in the alliance, war is a minority, potentially untenable proposition.

Britain remains outwardly the most committed European member of the coalition. In mid-November a poll for the Times of London showed 62% of those surveyed backing the use of U.S. and British troops against Iraq if Saddam Hussein refuses to leave Kuwait. Even the opposition Labour Party has consistently backed the government's gulf policy. However, in spite of current levels of support, pollsters believe public approval will decline dramatically as casualties mount.

Officially, France remains on the anti-Saddam bandwagon. During the CSCE summit in Paris two weeks ago, President Francois Mitterrand repeatedly told Bush that "we're not going to leave you alone in the desert." The public is more diffident: in a poll published by Le Figaro last week, only 36% said they would favor French involvement in a gulf war, down from 46% in September. An earlier survey had shown that 53% wanted France to stand by the U.S.; that figure has fallen to 40%.

Germany has pledged $2.2 billion to support the coalition, but militarily it is comfortably noninvolved. None of its soldiers have been or will be sent to the gulf, and virtually all the German hostages returned from Iraq two weeks ago. There have been only minor antiwar demonstrations. Fuel-price increases have failed to stimulate debate: long before the current crisis, Bonn imposed heavy gasoline taxes to encourage conservation; thus higher costs for crude only marginally affected German pump prices, which run in excess of $3 per gal.

In Japan a few voices in the press have pointed out that the crisis gave Tokyo the opportunity to come up with dramatic foreign policy initiatives. But despite the danger to oil supplies, critical for a country that imports virtually all its crude, the public considers the gulf too far away to be a threat. Japan has pledged $4 billion to the coalition -- an amount that, U.S. critics note, is far less than the $6 billion Matsushita paid last week to acquire MCA.

Turkey has won praise from Washington for its support. But Prime Minister Turgut Ozal's hawkishness may have led the West to overrate Turkey's commitment. In a recent poll, 72% of respondents opposed Turkish military involvement.

A host of other troubles bedevils the coalition. Moscow is too busy with domestic crises to do more than offer moral support. Understandably, popular enthusiasm for a foreign military adventure is not great at a time when Soviet mothers are still mourning sons killed in Afghanistan. Saudi Arabia and Syria cringe at the idea of a conflict pitting Arab against Arab. They remain uncomfortable with being -- at least theoretically -- aligned with Israel, which, though it has no troops committed to the gulf, is undoubtedly in favor of striking Iraq. Waiting for war may not corrode strength of arms, but it does eat away at the heart.

With reporting by Edward M. Gomez/Paris and Seiichi Kanise/Tokyo, with other bureaus