Syria Siding with the U.S.

By LISA BEYER DAMASCUS

Early risers in Damascus these days are treated to what is ordinarily an unthinkable sight in the Syrian capital: antigovernment graffiti. LONG LIVE SADDAM HUSSEIN, one scrawler proclaimed recently in a bold protest against President Hafez Assad's participation in the U.S.-led alliance against Saddam. The inscriptions are quickly erased, but government authorities know that all the whitewash in the world cannot obliterate the sentiment they express. "To be anti-U.S. and pro-Arab nationalism is what people in Syria have been groomed for, and it's very difficult to shake off," says a Western diplomat in Damascus. "This feeling is all of the government's making, and now it doesn't serve their purposes."

- It is no small irony that as President Bush and Assad met in Geneva last week, both men found themselves under attack at home for the get-together -- the American for cozying up to a dictator who has never been reluctant to use terrorism to achieve his goals, the Syrian for dealing with the U.S. Posters of Assad have been defaced. Anonymous leaflets criticizing the alliance with the West have quietly circulated and, according to diplomats, have resulted in arrests in southern Syria. Authorities have confided to foreign dignitaries that an estimated 85% of the public opposes Syria's gulf policy. Even Syrian military officers have privately expressed misgivings.

Assad is hardly concerned about winning a popularity contest. As he once said, "It is not public opinion that makes government but government that makes public opinion." Nonetheless, Damascus has fired up its propaganda machine to assure the public that Assad has not completely changed course -- and in so doing has underscored some of the problems confronting the coalition against Saddam in the gulf. The state-controlled media continue to attack the U.S. bitterly for its support of Israel. In addition, Damascus officials have asserted that the 3,000 Syrian troops in Saudi Arabia will defend the desert kingdom but will not participate in an attack against the army of another Arab nation, even though Saddam and Assad, who head rival wings of the socialist Baath party, bitterly resent each other.

Assad's allies profess not to be worried. "It's what the Syrians do, not what they say, that counts," says a Western diplomat. That point was emphasized earlier this month, when the first of 300 Syrian tanks and other armored vehicles arrived at the Saudi port of Yanbu. Assad had agreed to the shipment in September but claimed that transportation problems had delayed the deployment. Though Western diplomats initially dismissed that excuse, they now believe Assad and are confident that Damascus will honor its original commitment to send its entire 9th Armored Division, totaling 15,000 men.

Though a government official asserts that Damascus does not require any return on its investment in Saudi Arabia, diplomats say the Syrians are piqued at what they believe have been miserly rewards for riding in the U.S.-led posse against Iraq. So far, Damascus has reportedly received at least $1 billion from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the exiled Kuwaiti government for stationing its troops in the gulf. But the West has been less generous, especially in light of the U.S.'s decision to forgive Egypt's $6.7 billion in military debt. Syria remains on Washington's list of countries that sponsor terrorism and thus is cut off from U.S. aid. Britain maintains its refusal to restore relations with Damascus, which were severed in 1986 after Syria was accused of complicity in the attempted bombing of an Israeli airliner in London.

Meanwhile, the Syrians are exasperated by the aid Washington has promised Israel. For the first time the U.S. is to supply Jerusalem with Patriot missile systems, which will greatly strengthen Israel's antiaircraft defenses. Such unqualified U.S. support for Jerusalem makes Assad's alignment with Washington all the harder to sell at home. But at least one diplomat in Damascus believes Syrian authorities may be inflating their assessments of the domestic opposition to convince Washington of the need to downplay relations with Israel. Damascus has asserted that if Jerusalem gets involved in any conflagration in the region, it will quickly switch sides. Said a government official: "Against Israel, we will stand with Iraq."

But Syria is betting that this scenario will never occur and that Saddam will not emerge victorious from the crisis. "In the case of war, Saddam will be toppled," says a government official. "If there is peace, Saddam will be in trouble internally because the Iraqis will demand to know why he pushed them into Kuwait just to give it up. Either way, he will not come out of this as strong as he was." Assad may well prefer the first outcome, especially if his soldiers are not called upon to do any fighting. "If there is war and we do not approve it beforehand," says an official, "we will not be responsible for the results." Being happy with the results is another matter.