The Agony of Victory

By Lisa Beyer

On the road leading up to the presidential palace, former headquarters of renegade General Michel Aoun, Lebanese army soldiers sat proudly last week atop hundreds of Soviet-made T-54 tanks, savoring the defeat of the mutinous general. Their presence testified to the Lebanese government's new hold on Beirut, but the symbolism was illusory. Beneath the Lebanese paper flags that the troops plastered on the tanks' turrets were Syrian army markings. The Lebanese soldiers were only window dressing, for the T-54s had been manned by Syrian troops in the offensive that dislodged Aoun two weeks ago.

The Persian Gulf crisis remains unresolved, but it has already produced its first clear-cut winner: Syrian President Hafez Assad. By crushing Aoun's 11- month rebellion once and for all, Assad has expanded his already considerable influence over his western neighbor. Under ordinary circumstances, an extension of Syrian hegemony in Lebanon would have provoked alarm in several foreign capitals, especially Washington and Jerusalem. But by strongly supporting the U.S.-led alliance against Saddam Hussein, Assad has won a wide berth for exercising his might. While denying speculation that Washington acquiesced to Syria's raid on Aoun's forces, all the U.S. State Department could say was that it hopes Aoun's neutralization "ends a sad chapter of Lebanon's history."

There is at least a chance that it may do that. The routing of Aoun eliminated the greatest obstacle to implementation of the Taif peace agreement, a plan approved by Lebanon's National Assembly a year ago that would give the country's Muslim majority an equal share of power with the long-dominant Christians. Aoun, who escaped during the fighting to the French embassy, where he remained holed up last week, had revolted against the accord because it provided no timetable for the withdrawal of Syrian forces in Lebanon, who number 40,000. France has granted Aoun asylum, but Lebanese President Elias Hrawi's government insists that he remain in the country to face trial for, among other things, allegedly pilfering $75 million from the treasury.

With Aoun out of the picture, most of Lebanon north of the Chouf Mountains is expected to enjoy relative peace. Several of the dozen or so militias that sprang up during the country's 15 years of civil war have promised to disband their forces and transform themselves into political parties. The pro-Iranian Hizballah, a Shi'ite extremist group that is thought to hold most of the Western hostages in Lebanon, feels threatened by the recent Syrian deployment in its stronghold, Beirut's southern suburbs. But given the importance Damascus attaches to its relations with Iran, especially in the midst of the effort to isolate Iraq, the Syrians are unlikely to turn on Hizballah yet. Last week Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa dampened speculation that some of the British captives were to be released soon, saying such a development was unlikely.

While stability may be in the offing for Lebanon, independence remains elusive, a point Lebanese authorities have not been ashamed to acknowledge. Said Hussein al-Husseini, the speaker of parliament: "We need Syria again in the next stages to extend legal authority and disarm the militias."

It is not just Hizballah that is wary of Syria's heightened role in Lebanon. Residents of the 80-sq.-mi. enclave formerly controlled by Aoun are terrified by the foreigners. They claim that the Syrians coldly murdered 80 captured soldiers loyal to Aoun. Reporters were shown the corpses of more than 30 men in the basement of the Baabda General Hospital who had apparently been shot at close range in the neck and head. Hrawi's government has denied charges of a massacre, but France has asked the United Nations to investigate.

Police say at least 350 people died in the eight-hour battle for Aoun's turf, and 1,200 were wounded. But based on the accounts of military and hospital sources, the toll may be as high as 750, which would make the confrontation the single deadliest day in the civil war.

Regardless of what happens in northern Lebanon, the south will probably remain explosive. There is little chance the government's authority will be extended soon to Sidon, home to 15,000 Palestinian guerrillas, most of whom support Saddam Hussein. Even Syrian troops do not dare venture to Sidon. The Shi'ite Muslim Amal and Hizballah factions continue to attack each other in the Iqlim Al Toffah region east of Sidon, while communist, Hizballah and Palestinian militants sometimes try to raid Israeli positions in southern Lebanon.

Hrawi's government began last week to dismantle the nine-mile-long Green Line, a jumble of sandbags, earth, barbed wire and rusted freight containers that divided Christian east Beirut from the mainly Muslim western section like a jagged wound. But there were no signs of jubilation on either side of the boundary when Hrawi announced the imminent reunification of Beirut. The Green Line has been bulldozed several times before. But on each occasion, it was only a short time before fighting resumed and a new scar was cut through the city.

With reporting by Lara Marlowe/Beirut