Throw Some of the Bums Out!

By Laurence I. Barrett

Boom! John Silber, defying polls and diverse voter groups insulted by his reckless rhetoric, trounces the party's mediocrity of choice to become the Democratic candidate for Governor in Massachusetts. Republicans nominate William Weld, a tough ex-prosecutor, rather than a gray legislator blessed by the G.O.P. convention.

Bang! On the same day last week, Oklahoma voters approve, by a 2-to-1 * margin, a referendum limiting the tenure of state legislators to 12 years. This first-in-the-nation uprising against career lawmakers will probably be duplicated in California and Colorado come November.

Did these loud noises signal mass execution of incumbents this fall? Or were they merely firecrackers set off by local heat waves? David Carney, head of the White House political office, took the expansive view: "People are sick of incumbents. They're absolutely fed up." Howard Schloss, speaking for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, insists that incumbency is still a huge asset. "The ballot box is sending one message, and the theorists another." In fact, the results seem to highlight an odd disjuncture in the American political system: Carney is right about the voters' damn-all- politicia ns resentments, but Schloss appears right about probable outcomes this November.

Publication of a comprehensive poll by the Times Mirror Co. last week compounded insiders' angst by showing that political dyspepsia has worsened. For instance, 78% say that elected federal officials quickly lose touch with constituents (vs. 73% in a comparable poll three years ago). The proposition that ordinary people lack influence on government action gets agreement from 57%, up 5 points.

Yet neither signs of hardening alienation nor scattered election returns signal border-to-border upheaval. Norman Ornstein, a consultant on the Times Mirror project, argues, "Linkage between these attitudes and political action hasn't yet been made in most places." One reason is that the Persian Gulf crisis has dominated the news and overshadowed the hard-to-focus outrage at the S&L debacle. Further, many entrenched incumbents raised so much money so early that worthy rivals never entered the fray.

Of the 400 primaries for House seats this year, just one incumbent fell (he had been convicted of having sex with an underage girl). Come November, 82 House candidates will face no real opposition at all. Of the 435 races, 60 at most are considered competitive. In 1988, 99% of those seeking re-election to the House won. The figure will probably be similar this year. Senate elections are always more volatile, and a few incumbents do appear vulnerable. Still, of the 35 Senate contests, 16 have either no opponent or merely token opposition.

Last week's explosions resulted from particularly combustible circumstances. In Oklahoma, voters gagged on tax increases and focused their animosity on the state legislature. Thus they were primed for the term-limit referendum, billed by its backers as "a citizens' revolt against professional politicians." In Massachusetts the economy had imploded, along with Governor Michael Dukakis' standing. Public anger escalated along with the deficit. When Dukakis chose to retire, party regulars turned to Francis Bellotti, 67, a swaybacked former attorney general burdened with a liberal business-as-usual image.

Enter John Silber, president of Boston University, a Reaganite Democrat who has long advertised his disdain for Dukakis. Silber tossed off offensive remarks -- toward bureaucrats, the elderly, feminists, ghetto residents, Jews -- the way most candidates distribute campaign buttons. But he came across as an exemplar of change (and anger) at a moment when voters hungered for nothing but. In the end, his laser lip earned him the same anti-politician cachet that has propelled the cowboy campaign of Clayton Williams, the Republican candidate for Governor in Silber's native state of Texas. Silber, like Williams, is viewed as a populist. A hallmark of populism, from the left or the right, is exploitation of anger against the status quo. "I understood the outrage," Silber said.

Being a non-politician has been helpful to many candidates, and William Weld, the pluperfect blueblood who won the Republican primary to oppose Silber in November, also played that card. His opponent, Steven Pierce, the house minority leader, matched Bellotti's shopworn look. The record turnout of Bay State voters demonstrated the public's tendency to turn on state officials with more wrath than it shows to members of Congress in troubled times. The culpability of federal lawmakers is more easily hidden. That explains why, in addition to Dukakis, nine other Governors are voluntarily retiring this year.

But even in this roiled setting some state executives are easily handling challenges by unconventional outsiders. Though New York has its share of difficulties, Governor Mario Cuomo has such velocity that his Republican opponent, economist Pierre Rinfret, talked last week of quitting the race. Thus Cuomo, like many other familiar faces, seems certain to survive November's test. In most venues, the combination of public indignation and candidates deft enough to exploit it has not reached critical mass -- at least not yet.

With reporting by Sam Allis/Boston