Saddam's Strongest Card

By Ed Magnuson

Of all the cards Saddam Hussein was holding as he attempted to stave off the U.S. and its allies, the strongest was the thousands of Americans, Britons and other foreign nationals held against their will in Iraq and Kuwait.

Last week he played it. As the speaker of Iraq's parliament sarcastically put it, "The people of Iraq have decided to play host to the citizens of these aggressive nations as long as Iraq remains threatened with an aggressive war." They would be housed, he said, in military and civilian installations that would be likely U.S. targets if an armed conflict developed.

With that Baghdad put an end to all the pussyfooting about just what the status of these foreigners was. They were not, as the Iraqis had said before, mere "restrictees." They were hostages, pure and simple.

For governments with nationals caught in Saddam's grip, the announcement was the realization of three weeks of dread. Despite the drawn-out foreplay, there was no obvious course for coping with Iraq's latest outrage. The U.N. Security Council agreed unanimously that U.N. Secretary-General Javier Perez de Cuellar should immediately work to gain the release of the foreigners. But his main weapon is moral suasion, something Saddam Hussein seems immune to.

For weeks the states vulnerable to hostage taking had kept discussions of the issue sotto voce, hoping to leave room for Saddam to release the foreigners without needing to get something in return. Though that hope was extinguished, Washington remained purposefully low key. President Bush called the Iraqi move "totally unacceptable" and urged Baghdad to "immediately reconsider" it -- moderate words in light of the circumstances. "Our attitude," said a White House official, "is that we should not make the situation seem to be any worse than it is."

The British, on the other hand, were no longer holding their tongues. Iraq's ambassador to Britain was summoned to the Foreign Office and given a 20-minute dressing down. Publicly, Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd denounced Baghdad's actions as "disgraceful, inhumane and contrary to civilized behavior." The threats to foreign nationals, he stressed, "will not deter us" from continuing efforts to force Iraq out of Kuwait.

Those efforts, however, have certainly been made more complicated. The U.S. will be loath to do anything to provoke Saddam into getting even nastier with the hostages. If, for example, the trade embargo begins to create widespread hunger in Iraq, the ban on food imports probably will be eased. "The U.N. resolution on sanctions does not support a starvation strategy," a senior White House official emphasized. In fact, the resolution specifically cites food as a permissible exception if a "humanitarian" consideration arises.

Baghdad played to this issue when officials asserted that if food and medicine shortages occur, foreigners will suffer along with Iraqis. "If there were to be any reduction in the necessities of babies, then the same calamity affecting the Iraqi newborns will affect similarly the foreign babies," said a government statement. It claimed that already "food cannot be secured for aged persons in the manner that we wish."

The vulnerability of the trapped foreigners also acts as a serious constraint on Western military planners. Should the Iraqis lash out against Saudi Arabia or some other target, U.S. commanders would prefer to have the option not only of fighting the attackers head on but of striking tactical targets in Kuwait and Iraq. In such an event, however, "collateral damage" -- to use the military's chilling euphemism -- to foreign civilians is likely.

While some foreign diplomats suggest that Bush, in a crunch, would have to view the captive Americans as an expendable cost of pursuing broader U.S. interests, his advisers do not agree. If an American were executed and others seemed in danger, there would probably be a swift attempt to rescue by force as many of the others as seemed possible, a daunting prospect given Iraq's war footing and the large number and broad dispersal of the hostages. The timing of any such dramatic U.S. strike, explained an official, would hinge on whether "the danger of inaction is judged to be greater than the danger of action."

Such discussions are already making the British nervous. So far, Washington and London have seen eye to eye on the hostage issue, but British officials worry privately that their views may soon diverge. Americans are quicker than most nationalities to push their concern for the fate of individual compatriots to the center of the political stage. Despite London's harsh words to Baghdad last week, the British -- and West Europeans in general -- are more patient and less likely to allow hostages to become the focal point of policy. "Domestic pressures may bear down on Bush rapidly to use almost any means to free the Americans," said a high-ranking British diplomat. "Frankly, we are concerned that the Americans might go off half-cocked. Patience, firmness and strong nerves are essential in this sort of situation."

While Saddam seemed to be applying the greatest pressure on the Americans and the British, he had not yielded to pleas that all other foreigners also be freed. That looked like a miscalculation, since it kept the concern about hostage taking high on an international front rather than narrowed to his chief antagonists. But that was small comfort to the West and could quickly change. Britain was particularly concerned about its 36 military advisers to the exiled Emir of Kuwait. Neither their location nor their situation was known. Of the more than 150,000 foreigners who fled to Jordan from Iraq since Aug. 2, most were East Europeans, Arabs and Pakistanis.

For many who tried to escape, the flight through scorching desert, past wandering Bedouins and under the guns of rolling Iraqi tanks was a bizarre nightmare. Many got lost or had to hitch rides when their cars spun wheels and sank into the sand. After being stopped by Iraqi soldiers three times while trying to leave Kuwait City, Ramona Magee, an American, and Anita Rawlinson, a Briton, made it out by using disguises. They wore Arabic veils and joined a convoy of fleeing Kuwaitis.

Tony Watson, another Briton who made it out, found the Iraqi tank emplacements scary. "You've never seen so much hardware in your life," he recalled. "If America attacks them, they'll have a good go." T.P. Bryant Jr., a San Antonio aerial-mapping-company executive, stole a four-wheel-drive car and raced for the border. An Iraqi tanker swiveled his gun at the car but held fire. At the border Bryant abandoned the vehicle, leaving a note: "Return to sender."

Meanwhile, the living conditions of Westerners in Kuwait seemed to be deteriorating. Escapees told of food shortages as well as widespread looting. The first thieves were the invading Iraqi soldiers, who were quickly succeeded by an influx of marauding Iraqi civilians sent to run the government and replace Kuwaitis who refused to work.

The Iraqi soldiers in Kuwait were described as being led by disciplined frontline troops but lacking in such basic support as food and water. After the best-trained soldiers were shifted from Kuwait City to positions near the border with Saudi Arabia, they were replaced by frightened young troops, often wearing dishdashas (ankle-length flowing shirts) and carrying AK-47s. They robbed Westerners of cash and jewelry on the streets and shot and killed one Kuwaiti woman as she joined others protesting the invasion.

Some of the teenage soldiers told Kuwaitis that they did not know why they were there and that they expected to die in a U.S. counterattack. Others shed their uniforms and tried to blend into the population. A few said they would like to desert but feared reprisals against their families.

Having become increasingly sophisticated through painful experience with hostage seizures, Washington knows its limitations. While trying to downplay the situation, Bush has warned Iraq that the U.S. would retaliate swiftly if any Americans were harmed. "I'm never willing to sacrifice the life of any American," he said. But, he added, "the more we talk about it and the more we speculate about it, the less helpful it is."

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE

CREDIT: TIME Chart by Nigel Holmes

CAPTION: CAUGHT IN THE CONFLICT

While thousands have been able to leave, few Westerners have been among them

With reporting by William Dowell at the Saudi/Kuwaiti border, Dan Goodgame/Kennebunkport and William Mader/London