Helping Moscow See the Light

By Richard Lacayo

As German unification barrels down the express track, one thing might slow it: Moscow's ever louder refusal to countenance one Germany in NATO. Last week's summit underscored the Soviet Union's deep wariness of its former enemy and its difficulty digesting the fact that East Germans will wind up in the Western military alliance. At the same time, Washington and Bonn agree that the unified Germany must remain firmly entrenched in NATO.

Despite considerable posturing on the issue by both George Bush and Mikhail Gorbachev, it is increasingly evident that the solution lies not just with Washington and Moscow but also with a West German government that is ever more willing to use its diplomatic and economic muscle. Neutrality is completely out of the question, say West German officials, and they will no longer seriously consider the so-called French option: membership in the political alliance but withdrawal from its military side. Despite repeated expressions of Soviet resistance, the government of West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl is confident that Gorbachev will eventually come around. "The question of Germany's military status as a member of NATO will appear in a new light for the Soviet Union," predicts West German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher.

To help Moscow see that light, Kohl has been energetically pursuing private bilateral dealings with the Soviets, along with formal negotiations. At last month's Two-plus-Four negotiations -- the unification talks involving the two Germanys and the four Allied victors of World War II -- Kohl huddled with Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze. In the most dramatic move, Kohl's top foreign policy adviser, Horst Teltschik, was dispatched to Moscow last month for consultations -- a trip that Kohl tried to keep secret not only from Washington but also from Genscher, a sometime political rival.

Many foreign policy experts are convinced that Moscow will negotiate furiously for economic and security assurances before approving unification. Germany can offer technology, loans and credits that would give a crucial boost to the disintegrating Soviet economy. For its part, Bonn is quick to deny it is trying to appease Soviet military fears with purely economic payoffs. Instead officials talk of weaving a web of mutual understanding, where both sides would benefit economically and politically. Though Washington would welcome any arrangement that makes the Kremlin more amenable, it is also likely to have misgivings about the possibility of a burgeoning German-Soviet concord that leaves the U.S. on the sidelines.

American officials caution that money alone will not allay Moscow's anxieties. At the summit the Soviets repeated their call for a replacement for both NATO and the Warsaw Pact: a vaguely defined "Greater European Council," which would be part of the 35-nation Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe. Said Soviet Foreign Ministry spokesman Gennadi Gerasimov: "We want a united Germany to be integrated into an all-European system."

Neither Bonn nor Washington considers that a serious option. Instead they are searching for ways to satisfy Soviet security concerns. The West Germans have won U.S. support for a promise to keep NATO troops out of the former territory of East Germany. In addition, they have proposed that some of the 380,000 Soviet troops stationed there could remain during a transition period of up to seven years, with unified Germany footing the bill.

The Soviets have pressed further for an agreement to cap the size of the German armed forces, the Bundeswehr, a proposal that Bonn has resisted so far. But while Kohl holds many of the cards, Gorbachev is not without a few of his own. For one, he has threatened simply to leave Soviet troops in East Germany if his concerns are not met. More subtly, he could appeal to German public opinion, as he has done successfully in the past. Many Germans are weary of the U.S. military presence on their soil, and Gorbachev could propose that future NATO membership be conditioned upon withdrawal of American as well as Soviet troops and upon removal of all nuclear weapons from German soil. With national elections scheduled for December, the voters might drive Kohl's Christian Democratic Party to accept such a proposal.

The aim of extracting the maximum concessions from Bonn is likely to encourage Gorbachev to drag his feet on unification. Certainly he was too skilled a politician to make compromises in the highly visible arena of last week's superpower summit. "It is not here that the German question will be settled," he said in Washington. No doubt the leaders in Bonn would agree. They intend to see that it is settled in Germany.

With reporting by James O. Jackson/Bonn and Bruce van Voorst/Washington