Sunbelt Mud Slides
By MARGARET CARLSON
"She started it," claimed Texas attorney general Jim Mattox, pictured in political cartoons as the aging "Mutant Ninja Candidate." "No, he started it," says state treasurer Ann Richards, the winner of last Tuesday's mud- splattered, swamp-dwelling Texas Democratic gubernatorial runoff.
Whoever threw the first punch, the race that just ended may win the prize as the most negative one ever, even nastier than anything served up in the 1988 presidential campaign. Mattox, whose campaign slogan was "Texas Tough," accused Richards, a silver-haired grandmother and recovering alcoholic, of being a marijuana-smoking cokehead when she was Travis County commissioner more than a decade ago. She accused him of financial shenanigans, including taking a large campaign contribution from a savings and loan operative. In a television ad, Richards also brought up Mattox's 1984 indictment on a bribery charge, without mentioning his acquittal. Former Democratic Governor Mark White, who finished third in the March 13 primary, jumped into the pecking party, accusing Richards of using tactics worthy of Nazi SS chief Heinrich Himmler. Yet White produced TV spots so bloodcurdlingly pro-death penalty that they were parodied on Saturday Night Live.
"It was a family quarrel; the wounds will heal," says Democratic state chairman Bob Slagle. That comment might have been on target if the family were named Manson and a miracle blood-clotting drug were discovered before the November election. The Texas primary demonstrates once again the difference between the two parties, as do crucial gubernatorial races in California and Florida. While the G.O.P. generally adheres to its eleventh commandment -- Never speak ill of another Republican -- Democrats eat their own with relish.
After fractious primaries, Democrats will limp into the general election having spent most of their money defeating each other. There they will face tanned, rested and ready Republicans sitting atop huge, unused campaign treasuries. Ahead in the main arena for Richards is West Texas oil millionaire Clayton Williams, who breezed to the Republican nomination in an easy March primary. In California, G.O.P. candidate (and U.S. Senator) Pete Wilson is lying in wait, while Democrats Attorney General John Van de Kamp and former San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein have at each other. Among Florida's Democrats, former Senator Lawton Chiles has just heard "voices" that told him to jump into the primary at the last minute, wrecking the carefully built two-year campaign of Congressman Bill Nelson to be the standard-bearer against Republican Governor Bob Martinez.
Fortunately for Richards, bidding to become the first woman Governor of Texas since Miriam ("Ma") Ferguson ruled the state from 1925 to 1927, Republican nominee Williams suffered a self-inflicted wound that could cripple him. He joked that bad weather was inevitable, like rape, and the only thing to do was to "relax and enjoy it." He said later he was kidding, an apology that may work with the so-called Bubba vote. Women may not be so forgiving, particularly those who were already leaning toward Richards as the pro-choice candidate.
Polls show that Richards is strong among women, in urban areas and among voters who are new to Texas. Strategists believe she will make inroads among suburban Republican women under 45. Williams is popular with men, in rural areas and among those who long for the "old Texas," an imagined state of being that stands for an ever stronger Republican appeal. One estimate has 60% of Texans calling themselves conservatives, and a poll last week showed that 27% of Democratic votes could go to Williams this fall, more than enough to elect him.
Two days after the Texas runoff, any hope that Democrats would keep their bad habits in check in Florida collapsed with the announcement by Chiles that he would, after all, enter the Sept. 4 primary. Until then, Nelson, from the Cape Canaveral area and known primarily for his 1986 ride in space, was the leading candidate, ahead of state senator George Stuart. But many Democrats think the best chance of defeating Martinez is a dream ticket of Chiles, who as "Walkin' Lawton" traveled the length of the state on foot in 1970 to win his Senate seat, and former Congressman Buddy McKay, who lost the closest election in Florida history to Republican Connie Mack in the 1988 race for Chiles' vacated seat. Chiles is limiting contributions to $100.
As ever, though, one Democrat's dream is another's nightmare. Nelson's campaign manager called Chiles' late entry "a quirky thing" and huddled in long meetings, trying to figure out what to do. Meanwhile, fellow Democrats and Republicans were quick to strike, circulating rumors about Chiles' mental stability. Chiles admitted that he has been taking the antidepressant Prozac and that it could become an issue in the race.
Martinez's campaign manager reacted to the Chiles news with the rhetorical question, "Is God a Republican, or what?" Martinez needs all the Democratic help he can get. He nearly self-destructed last October, when he tried unsuccessfully to become the nation's first Governor to take advantage of the Supreme Court's Webster decision and push restrictive new abortion laws through the Florida legislature. He lost resoundingly, and his negatives soared. Afterward, more Florida voters (24%) said they would vote for "anyone but Martinez" than said they would vote for him (22%). Still, Florida's G.O.P. moneymen are sticking with him. "He's the guy who pulled it off in 1986 when the odds were against us," says Florida G.O.P. aide Stan Smith. "You dance with the guy who brung ya."
Democrats, of course, will take anyone onto the floor for a spin, an open- arms policy that worked better when they were the majority party. In California registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans, but last month for the first time since 1934 they dipped below 50% of the electorate, and the party can ill afford a divisive campaign. In a battle of the network stars, Feinstein shot ahead of Van de Kamp by 19 points with a tough pro-death penalty stance and an early television ad reprising her "I'm-in-charge-here" coolheadedness after the 1978 assassination of San Francisco Mayor George Moscone. Van de Kamp responded with an attack ad picturing Feinstein as a muddleheaded manager and accusing her of creating irresponsible budget deficits. Feinstein struck back with another commercial comparing Van de Kamp's tactics with Nixon's against Helen Gahagan Douglas in 1950.
Meanwhile, California Republicans are desperate to hold on to power in Sacramento to stop the Democratic legislature from redrawing congressional districts entirely to their advantage after the 1990 census. Even conservative supporters of incumbent Governor George Deukmejian have been willing to unite behind Wilson, although it means overlooking his moderate pro-choice, pro- environment, anti-off-shore-drilling stances. Wilson heads into California's TV-heavy general election ready to deploy $16 million to $20 million, while Van de Kamp and Feinstein will already have spent most of what they have raised -- about $4 million apiece.
Until now Democrats have counterbalanced their inability to elect a President by winning a majority in the Congress and in statehouses, but with elections in three Sunbelt states in jeopardy, they run the risk of losing that fig leaf of respectability. For sheer survival, Democrats should try to join the grownups' table and put an end to their days of sibling rivalry. In Florida some party elders, torn between their early commitment to Nelson and a desire to get behind Chiles, are hoping Nelson will drop out in time to run for re-election to his House seat. The deadline is May 11. In Texas, Mattox has announced he will support Richards. Still, Democrats like White insist they will never endorse Richards, never support her and never vote for her. That is Texas Tough but Democrat Dumb.
CHART: NOT AVAILABLE
CREDIT: TIME Chart by Steve Hart
CAPTION: A BIGGER FOOTHOLD FOR THE G.O.P.
With reporting by Jordan Bonfante/Los Angeles, James Carney/Miami and Richard Woodbury/Austin