Britain Time for Maggie to Move Over?

By Frederick Painton

Margaret Thatcher's ten-year grip on power never depended much on the affection of her countrymen. She won three successive general elections by sheer force of character, the clarity of her goals and a lack of plausible opposition. As the Thatcher revolution rolled on, she acquired an almost mythic invincibility; popularity seemed to matter little as long as voters believed her to be the most trustworthy manager of the national interest.

That confidence in Thatcher's competence, however, has been ebbing fast in recent months. For the first time, there is a growing sense that the Iron Lady has finally worn out her welcome -- and that Britain might be ready for fresh leadership.

Opinion surveys show a record low in the electorate's confidence. According to the latest Gallup poll, only 24% approve of Thatcher, vs. 45% a year ago. This is not just another bout of midterm blues. Assorted grievances focused on her personality, as well as her performance, have coalesced around what even top Conservative party leaders consider a major political blunder: imposing a poll tax that has mobilized a majority of Britons in opposition, including many Tory members of Parliament. The levy was designed to replace the local property tax with a head levy, making all adults pay something toward community services. The last time Britain tried to introduce a similar tax was in 1380 -- and that helped provoke the Peasants' Revolt. Thatcher should have known better. Characteristically, she refused to back down and now is paying a high political price.

She may be paying as much for the rising inflation that is gnawing at living standards, undermining the very economic boom her government created. The inability to control interest rates, inflation, wages and at the same time maintain a strong pound mocks her greatest achievement: reversing Britain's postwar economic decline. Even Thatcher's stature as a world leader is being questioned at home and abroad, especially since West Germany's Helmut Kohl, viewing himself as the "chancellor of unification," seems to have taken command of the Continent. Thatcher's standoffish positions, symbolized by her opposition to European monetary union, are isolating her.

Last week the Prime Minister's credibility was further shaken by anarchic violence that much of the country -- and the world -- witnessed live, on television. Suddenly, the rage of embittered and alienated young people was dramatized for all to see.

A London protest demonstration against the poll tax degenerated into riot, assault, looting and arson. More than 350 policemen and 86 civilians were injured. Police blamed some 3,000 hard-core leftists for turning the antitax march of around 40,000 people into a six-hour street battle.

Critics laid responsibility for the violence on the Prime Minister for dividing the country so deeply between haves and have-nots. Within the Conservative Party, she still rules with a firm hand. But dissent has been rising over her leadership, which may cost many Tory M.P.s their seats.

Is this the beginning of the end for Thatcher? That is no longer inconceivable. But until an election, the only way the Prime Minister could be removed from office is by a revolt within party ranks or by resignation. Neither seems likely, for now.

Nevertheless, rivals are positioning themselves for the job. The leading contender is Conservative Michael Heseltine, 57, a former Defense Minister who walked out of the Cabinet in 1986 in a disagreement over the government's attitude toward the European Community, as well as Thatcher's domineering style. He represents a return to the patrician Tory values, including a traditional concern for the poor and disadvantaged. Heseltine has also staked out a more pro-Europe position. And for the first time since Thatcher came to power, voters are looking with favor on Labour Party leader Neil Kinnock.

If there is discontent over her management of foreign policy, Thatcher's main liability is her recent performance in running the economy. Inflation is crackling along at a 7.5% annual rate and headed for 9% by summer. Interest rates are pushing 15%, and 9% wage increases continue to outstrip productivity. Since elections must be called by June 1992, Thatcher has less than two years in which to turn the economy around -- or face the real prospect of electoral defeat. A decade-long run of good fortune seems near the end -- and the Prime Minister finds herself more vulnerable than ever before.

With reporting by William Rademaekers/London