Puerto Rico, the 51st Estado

By Laurence I. Barrett

A scale model of the Statue of Liberty evoked memories of Tiananmen Square. A mock barrier, dubbed the Wall of Colonialism, was battered down as demonstrators cheered. It might have been an anti-Soviet prop at an independence rally in Lithuania. Instead, this was in the city of Ponce in southern Puerto Rico, and the 125,000 yellow-clad marchers were not calling for the island's freedom but to join the U.S. as the 51st state.

The March 10 rally was surprising for its size, spirit and the message emblazoned on some banners: LA ESTADIDAD ES PARA LOS POBRES. Statehood for the poor? In Puerto Rico's triangulated politics, the statehood cause had been - monopolized by the upper class. A small faction of nationalists and leftists fought, occasionally with guns, for total independence. The rest of the population appeared content with commonwealth status, the pragmatic option in effect since 1952. As an American commonwealth, or "associated free state" in island usage, Puerto Rico has received enough benefits and tax concessions from Washington to make it rich by Caribbean standards. But it remains impoverished compared with the mainland, with half the per capita income of Mississippi.

Now the triangle has been rearranged. The New Progressive Party, led by former Governor Carlos Romero Barcelo, argues that statehood would mean not only political equality but also more food on the table. The Popular Democratic Party, under incumbent Governor Rafael Hernandez Colon, contends that only an "enhanced" version of commonwealth can protect the island's economy as well as its Hispanic culture. Judging by polls and street-corner opinion, Romero's statehood campaign today enjoys momentum. When the Popular Democrats staged a rally in Mayaguez, only 75 partisans showed up. Watching the Ponce parade, Luisa Rodriguez, an unemployed mother of seven, said, "I don't know if the North Americans want Puerto Rico, but the Puerto Ricans want a better form of life. If there is no statehood, I will move to Ohio. In Ohio, they treat you well."

Washington helped promote the change in political dynamics. In January 1989 Hernandez proposed that Congress give formal blessing to a plebiscite with three options: independence, statehood or a modified form of commonwealth giving the island greater self-government. A month later, George Bush endorsed the proposal and reaffirmed the G.O.P.'s traditional support for statehood. But Bush signaled that he intended more than the token effort made by Republican predecessors. Bush and the Republican National Committee are trying to pry Hispanics from their traditional Democratic loyalty. Proposing full political equality for the island seized from Spain in 1898 helps that effort.

The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee last summer approved a bill that would sanction a binding plebiscite in 1991. However, the details horrified the Governor's faction: under the Senate bill, the statehood option seems an instant gold mine. Islanders would get a congressional delegation plus full parity with the other 50 states in federal welfare assistance immediately, while the present full exemption from federal taxes on individuals and companies would be phased out only gradually. About 40% of the island's 3.3 million residents now qualify for federally supported food assistance. According to Hernandez, average monthly benefits for a family of four would climb from $199 to $331.

These terms allowed Romero to proclaim statehood a bonanza for ordinary citizens. Hernandez denounced the Senate draft as "terribly, dangerously and unacceptably unbalanced." Now the commonwealth faction seeks help from the House. The island demonstrations coincided with a visit by the House Subcommittee on Insular and International Affairs, which is writing its own measure.

While demands for a swift resolution escalate on the island, many members of Congress have barely focused on the full impact of a plebiscite that would commit Washington to the outcome in advance. A new economic forecast circulated by Hernandez this month estimates that under the terms of the present Senate draft, statehood would cost the Treasury nearly $25 billion by the year 2000. According to this projection, many large companies would leave the island once they had to pay full federal taxes, doubling the already brutal unemployment rate to about 30%.

These pitfalls and Hernandez's complaints may cause Congress to delay indefinitely. That could benefit statehooders on the island and Republicans on the mainland. Hernandez would be blamed for the derailment, giving Romero a fine opportunity to recapture the governorship in 1992. In courting Hispanics, Bush would hold the Democratic Congress responsible for denying Puerto Rico an opportunity to choose its own political fate at a time when self-determination is the global fashion.

With reporting by James Carney/Ponce