Nicaragua You First -- No, You First

By Lisa Beyer

Nicaragua's civil war is supposed to be over. But contra commander Ciguena, as he calls himself, is in no rush to return to the civilian life he abandoned eight years ago to take up arms against the Sandinistas. As he sat beneath a tree in the dusty backwater village of San Marcos in northern Nicaragua last week, Ciguena, 25, explained that he supports Violeta Chamorro, whose National Opposition Union (U.N.O.) defeated the Sandinistas at the polls two weeks ago. But Chamorro has called on the contras to disband, and Ciguena doubts that she can function as President without him and his fellow fighters. "The Sandinistas," Ciguena warns, "are very treacherous. If we turn in our arms now, they'll finish us off and go after Dona Violeta. It's the Sandinistas that must disarm."

Daniel Ortega Saavedra could not disagree more. "If we don't want the storm of civil war and insurrection to sweep us away, then the contras must disarm," he said last week. While initially gracious in defeat, the Sandinista leader has since turned recalcitrant. Besides demanding that the contras demobilize immediately, Ortega & Co. have publicly insisted on the Sandinistas' retaining control of the 70,000-member army and the Interior Ministry even after the new government is sworn in April 25. In its last days, the defeated regime is also moving to enact sweeping laws that would turn public property over to Sandinista officials and give immunity for all unprosecuted crimes committed since their revolution in 1979. As the contras and Sandinistas trade belligerences, President-elect Chamorro is caught in the middle, facing the unenviable prospect of becoming a commander in chief saddled with two armies, neither of which takes orders from her.

, Still, the situation may not be as grim as it appears, given that both the contras and the Sandinistas are posturing, inflating their obstinacy in an effort to gain leverage. Ortega and his colleagues are seeking to secure as much power as possible in their role as the opposition in the new legislative assembly, where they will be the single largest party, controlling 39 of the 94 seats. The contras, for their part, want assurances that they will not be wiped out by the still armed Sandinista military once they agree to give up the fight and surrender their weapons.

In part because of pressure from the Bush Administration, which is concerned that Chamorro's inauguration may be derailed by the contras' intransigence, the rebel leaders are trying to appear reasonable. They have said they are willing to dismantle their forces, and though they talk of the need to "demilitarize" Nicaragua, they have dropped their initial condition that the Sandinista People's Army disarm simultaneously. Insists the group's chief negotiator, Oscar Sobalvarro: "The only thing that interests our people is to be able to go back without reprisals."

In a sprawling bungalow in the Honduran capital of Tegucigalpa last week, the contras opened discussions on the terms of their disengagement with representatives of the U.N.O. and the Roman Catholic Church. Honduras is the grudging host to some 10,000 contra troops; up to 4,000 other fighters operate in Nicaragua. The contras' concern for their safety was heightened last week when fighting between Sandinista soldiers and rebels broke out in central and northern Nicaragua; each side accuses the other of provoking the conflict.

Fears of Sandinista reprisals were reinforced by reports that since the election, the movement's activists have been harassing U.N.O. supporters, issuing death threats and stoning houses. At the same time, the Sandinistas have admitted to handing out truckloads of assault rifles and ammunition to civilians, ostensibly so that they can protect themselves from rebel attacks.

The contras will also require economic assistance if they are going to reintegrate successfully into society. After ten years in the mountains, the older guerrillas, many of whom were farmers, have lost the land they once tilled. The younger fighters know nothing but war, and must be trained for civilian jobs.

The Sandinista army may prove to be the bigger headache for the incoming Chamorro administration. Despite an increase in conscript desertions since the elections, the army's 15,000-strong professional core remains well disciplined and loyal to the Sandinistas. Chamorro has vowed to abolish the draft and reduce the size of the military. Luis Humberto Guzman, a member of U.N.O.'s senior advisory board, has said that military spending should not exceed 15% of the budget. Under Ortega, defense expenditures totaled 50% of the budget. For that reason alone, demobilization of both armies makes sense if Nicaragua is going to rebuild itself.

With reporting by Jan Howard/Managua and Wilson Ring/Tegucigalpa