Japan Goes to the Moon

By MICHAEL D. LEMONICK

The Japanese have a way of making big moves quietly. Only a handful of onlookers stood in the cold one evening last week to watch a slim red-and- silver rocket roar off the pad at the Kagoshima Space Center near Uchinoura, some 940 km (598 miles) southwest of Tokyo. But despite the minimal press coverage and lack of hoopla, the event was a major milestone for Japan's space program. The launch sent the unmanned Muses-A probe on its way to the moon, the first lunar mission since the Soviets' Luna 24 in 1976. Muses-A is expected to come within 16,000 km (10,000 miles) of the target in mid-March. It will then release a smaller probe, which will go into lunar orbit. If all goes as planned, Japan will become only the third country in history to reach earth's closest neighbor.

That will be just one step in a sweeping initiative that could eventually make Japan one of the premier powers in space. Muses-A is a prelude to future unmanned missions that may land on the moon and explore the atmosphere of Venus. At the same time, Japan is building a new booster rocket that could make the country a strong competitor in the burgeoning business of launching commercial satellites into earth orbit. The Japanese have announced no plans for manned space flights, but they are considering the possibility. Already their companies have begun developing construction techniques for use in building bases on the moon and even Mars.

In short, the Japanese are pursuing their space ventures with all the thoroughness and enthusiasm that made them world leaders in electronics and autos. Says Ray Williamson, a senior analyst for the U.S. Congressional Office of Technology Assessment: "The U.S. ought to keep a clear eye on their developing capabilities. Progress is steady, and the Japanese are serious about space."

Japan's progress is all the more impressive considering the obstacles its program has faced over the years. The U.S. and the Soviet Union originally used military-rocket technology to get a head start on scientific launches. But Japan's constitutional curbs on military activity forced its rocket scientists to start from scratch, and tight government budgets have not helped. In the current fiscal year, for example, Japan has allocated some $1.07 billion for space, about 10% of the U.S. figure. And launches are limited to only 90 days a year, half in winter and half in summer, because tuna fishermen near the space center claim that rockets are dangerous and scare away fish.

Another problem has been the more than two decades of bureaucratic rivalry between two Japanese space groups, the National Space Development Agency and the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science. ISAS focuses on academic scientific research, like the Muses-A mission, while NASDA's main business is to launch satellites for more practical uses, such as weather observation and communications. Combining these agencies and eliminating overlapping functions would make for a more efficient program.

For all those reasons, Japan was a late bloomer in space. It did not put its first satellite into earth orbit until 1970, six months after the U.S. landed men on the moon. But Japan has come on fast by stressing efficiency and borrowing rocket technology from other nations. For example, the country's workhorse launcher, the H-1, is a modified version of the 30-year-old U.S. Delta rocket. Most striking is Japan's record of consistency: ISAS has had only two failures in 19 launches, both in the 1970s.

The country is now trying to free itself from dependence on foreign know-how by developing its own booster. The H-2, scheduled for its first test launch in 1993, will be able to put a two-ton spacecraft into high earth orbit. That is competitive with Europe's Ariane 4, the U.S. Titan and the Soviets' Proton booster, all of which are being marketed as commercial launchers.

While the Japanese are becoming more independent, they are also starting cooperative ventures in areas where their experience and resources are insufficient to go it alone. They will help design the U.S.-Japanese Geotail satellite, which will explore the earth's magnetic field in 1992. They have agreed to build part of the proposed U.S. space station. And ISAS may contribute equipment to an unmanned Soviet Mars probe in 1994.

Some Japanese companies, meanwhile, are trying to get the inside track on international missions that have not even been scheduled yet. Shimizu, a construction firm, has opened a space-projects section to develop ideas for a moon base, either Japanese or American. The company has already begun work on how concrete made from lunar soil could be used to form large structures. Ohbayashi, also in the construction business, will join American companies in building a $100 million facility for lunar-base research in Florida.

U.S. scientists and officials do not feel much threatened by Japan's space ambitions. Its participation will help hold down the costs of future U.S. missions, and scientific data from exclusively Japanese probes will be available to all. Despite its many achievements, Japan remains significantly behind both the U.S. and the Soviet Union in space technology. Still, given the country's record in other areas, it may be a Japanese crew that first sets foot on Mars early in the coming century.

With reporting by Seiichi Kanise/Uchinoura