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By Richard Zoglin

Watching the three of them together has been, in the words of one TV critic, "like looking at a broken marriage with the home wrecker right there on the premises." The other woman in this scenario: Deborah Norville, 31, a blond comer at NBC who was brought in to read the news on the top-rated Today show. TV gossips surmised that Norville was being groomed to replace Jane Pauley, 38, as Bryant Gumbel's co-host. Suddenly the Today show became high- tension drama: Is Bryant being nicer to Deborah than to Jane? Did you notice a chill in the air? Cue the organ music.

Last week the soap opera took another turn. In the midst of negotiations with the network over her future, Pauley disclosed to the Washington Post that she will probably leave Today by the end of the year. She will remain at NBC (her contract ties her to the network for two more years), though in exactly what capacity has yet to be determined.

Pauley's departure is the latest in a series of jolts to NBC's once happy morning family. The turmoil began early this year with the leaking of an internal memo in which Gumbel bluntly criticized several of his Today colleagues, notably weatherman Willard Scott. Egos were still being massaged when the show went through a behind-the-scenes shake-up: NBC Sports president Dick Ebersol was given new responsibilities as the executive in charge of Today, an unusual and controversial appointment for someone outside the News division. Then came Norville's unseating of veteran John Palmer as anchor of the Today newscasts. Norville's sudden prominence (unlike Palmer, she occasionally gets to join Gumbel and Pauley on the couch) reportedly nettled Pauley and touched off rumors that she would soon be replaced.

If nothing else, NBC executives seem guilty of violating a cardinal TV principle, the one about fixing things that aren't broken. Today is No. 1 in the morning-news ratings, and has been for nearly four years. Yet its margin over ABC's Good Morning America has been shrinking. For the past two weeks, Today has led by only 0.4 of a rating point, and it has fallen to second place in the key demographic group of women ages 25 to 54. "There were a lot of people who thought the show was a little stale," says an NBC executive, "and that maybe it's when you're on top that you should do something about it."

Trading Pauley for Norville, however, may be risky. Pauley, a 13-year veteran of the show, remains a widely recognized and popular news personality, as well as the best interviewer among the morning-show women. Norville, who joined the network as anchor of NBC News at Sunrise in 1987, has yet to prove herself with a national audience. Her chief success to date: as correspondent for Bad Girls, a prime-time special about troubled teens that drew sensational ratings in August. Her fast rise has reportedly miffed many colleagues at NBC News. Last week she found herself the target of criticism for appearing as "anchor" at a Philip Morris sales presentation in February. Though the network had approved her appearance, NBC News president Michael Gartner later expressed doubts about its propriety. "Had we understood what was expected of Deborah," he said, "we would not have participated."

For Pauley, one of NBC's few authentic news stars, this daytime drama may end happily. She is likely to be promised some prime-time exposure, possibly as anchor of a series of news specials. The future for Today is murkier. NBC insiders speculate that weatherman Scott will follow Pauley out the door; one office rumor even has Gumbel being replaced by Later host Bob Costas, who is close to Ebersol. No telling what that would do for the Today ratings, but it should give the Today soap opera a long run.

With reporting by William Tynan/New York