Jordan Getting the Royal Flush

The riots were over by the time King Hussein rushed home to Amman, but the damage had already been done. Four days of violent protests across the country had left eight dead, 89 injured and the government under fire. As soon as he arrived from Washington, Hussein moved swiftly to contain the trouble, replacing his Prime Minister of four years, Zaid Rifai. A few days later, the King announced "speedy steps" toward Jordan's first parliamentary elections in 22 years.

The moves helped restore calm to what has traditionally been the Middle East's most stable nation. But the outburst caught the government by surprise and signaled that something more was awry than momentary resentment over price hikes imposed two weeks ago.

In fact, the economic conditions that provoked the unrest had been simmering for more than a year. Jordan has long been living beyond its means; a decade of Arab aid and overambitious borrowing provided an illusion of prosperity. But lately the money has begun to run out. Since last summer the Jordanian dinar has fallen 45% in value, while unemployment (now about 15%) and inflation (up to 30%) climbed steadily. In late March the government agreed on a budget-balancing plan with the International Monetary Fund aimed at paring the country's deficit and, ultimately, rescheduling Jordan's $6 billion foreign debt. But the government's austerity plan included increases of 10% to 50% in the price of gasoline, alcohol, cigarettes and mineral water, and two days after it was unveiled, disgruntled Jordanians took to the streets.

King Hussein escaped personal blame, but Rifai was widely faulted. According + to Professor Ismail Abdul Rahman, an economist at the University of Jordan, the government's "fatal mistake" was avoiding action for years, then trying to do too much too fast.

Jordan's stability is crucial to countries on both sides of the Arab-Israeli dispute. The King has brought in Field Marshal Sharif Zaid bin Shaker to oversee preparations for parliamentary elections in the near future, which should bring a degree of democracy to a largely authoritarian land. But whatever path the new government takes, the people face several more years of austerity. "Sooner or later, Jordanians will have to adjust to a lower standard of living," admitted a top adviser to the King. "There's no other way."