Nation

By Laurence I. Barrett

Bush's Lukewarm Welcome Though every new President gets something of a honeymoon with his constituency, George Bush's debut as Chief Executive will be marked more by cool realism than by warm affection. The TIME/CNN survey conducted by Yankelovich Clancy Shulman last week showed that the dearth of popular enthusiasm that dogged Campaign '88 has persisted. Now it focuses on Bush and Dan Quayle.

First Impressions. Just 50% of the public has a favorable impression of Bush, vs. 21% with an unfavorable perception and 29% uncertain. Quayle still runs a deficit on this score: 20% favorable, 30% unfavorable and 50% with no opinion. More than half (52%) do not consider Quayle qualified to become President if something were to happen to Bush.

Containing the $155.1 billion federal budget deficit is the electorate's top assignment for its new leader. The fiscal shortfall is seen as the country's main economic problem by 43%, vs. 22% who name unemployment, 16% the trade deficit and 11% inflation. Seven out of ten support Bush's opposition to new taxes, but the same large majority predicts that he will fail to avert them.

Which should be Bush's first priority?

Reducing the budget deficit 33%

Attacking the drug problem 20%

Addressing the trade imbalance 11%

Dealing with terrorism 22%

Public Confidence. A newly elected President dominates whatever attention is paid to public affairs and outshines Congress. Yet Bush, though active since Election Day, has yet to convert that opportunity into a stout foundation of public confidence.

Do you have more confidence in Bush or in Congress to deal with the country's main problems?

Bush 41%

Congress 41%

Neither 6%

Both the same 3%

Have Bush's actions since being elected made you more confident about his becoming President, less confident, or haven't they changed your opinion?

More confident 29%

Less confident 11%

No change 58%

Future Fears. The outgoing Administration's feel-good rhetoric, together with continued economic expansion and moderate inflation, has shaped the public's positive perception of pocketbook issues. A solid majority of 63% consider economic conditions in the country today either "very good" or "fairly good." But when asked about the 1990s, Americans harbor doubts about their own prospects and their children's. Even larger majorities fear that interest rates and inflation will accelerate during the next year.

Looking ahead five years from now, do you think conditions will be better than today or worse?

Conditions will be better 39%

Conditions will be worse 43%

Conditions will be the same 10%

Reagan vs. Bush. Reagan's expansive claims about having revived the American Dream have helped keep his popularity high. But the public takes a hard-headed view of his performance in some areas; 55% think he did a "poor job" in maintaining programs for the needy, and 63% fault him for the deficit. In fact, Americans expect Bush to outperform Reagan on some issues.

Compared with Reagan, do you think Bush will do a better or worse job on . . .

No

Better Worse difference

The deficit 57% 17% 13%

Ethical standards in

Government 62% 13% 14%

Handling Soviet relations 44% 22% 23%

Providing strong leadership 50% 26% 15%

Helping the middle class 53% 22% 15%

While there is no euphoria about Bush, Americans are transferring their hopes to him as Reagan leaves the arena. The absence of heady feelings about the new President may serve him well during his critical first few months in office. Given the domestic problems he inherits from Reagan, the last thing he needs is the burden of unrealistic expectations.