Middle East Contemplating the Next Step

By Scott MacLeod

Now that the U.S. is talking to Yasser Arafat's Palestine Liberation Organization, what should the next step be? For Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak and Jordan's King Hussein, two moderates whose unofficial alliance is seen by the U.S. as a key to peace in the region, the answer is obvious -- and familiar: get the U.S. to budge Israel.

In interviews last week with TIME managing editor Henry Muller and chief of correspondents John Stacks, the Arab leaders each emphasized that the incoming Bush Administration should make the Middle East a top priority and must persuade (a polite word for "pressure") Israel's newly formed unity government to enter peace negotiations aimed at reaching a settlement fair to the Palestinians.

Mubarak and Hussein see no realistic alternative to strong American activism, since Arafat has made some important concessions on the Arab side but Israel's Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir remains adamant in refusing demands that his country withdraw from the disputed territories. "You have your own connections with the Israelis," Mubarak said. "We are trying hard with the Israelis, but we can't play in the court alone. You should find a way to tackle this problem of how to persuade the Israelis to move forward in the peace process."

Despite evidence that the U.S. is usually reluctant to exert pressure on Israel in matters of war and peace and doubts that Israel would listen anyway, Hussein sees Bush's experience in foreign affairs as reason for Arab optimism. "The U.S. can do much with Israel, and it needs to do much in the times ahead," he said. Bush "knows the area. With all due respect, I had many meetings with President Reagan, ((but)) he had other priorities. Of all the problems the world has, ((the Middle East)) is the most dangerous."

Mubarak and Hussein, speaking separately in Cairo and Amman, discouraged any suggestion that Bush should come up with a new set of peace proposals. As they see it, all the parties to the conflict, except for the present Israeli government, already favor the convening of an international conference that includes Palestinian representation. "We don't need any more new ; initiatives," Hussein said. "There is a general agreement that an international conference would be the venue for the establishment of peace. All the parties have to participate. The Palestinians have to be involved. So we have to get on with it, rather than start looking for new formulas."

Mubarak said that Shamir should not fear that Arab states will gang up on Israel during negotiations. "Frankly speaking," he said, "I wonder why he fears an international conference. It will lead immediately to direct negotiations," as Shamir demands. Shamir is now suggesting he might countenance U.N. sponsorship to launch peace talks, but he remains firmly opposed to any more substantive international participation. In a separate interview in Jerusalem, Israeli Foreign Minister Moshe Arens explained why. At an international conference, he said, "there's the danger of having pressure applied to you, not by the party with whom you have to make peace but by other parties who may have other interests."

Arab leaders feel the Palestinian intifadeh in the West Bank and Gaza has given new urgency to resolving the prolonged debate over mechanics. "We can't spend years and years speaking about the Palestinian problem without any solution," Mubarak warned. "The Palestinians are living under oppression. They started the intifadeh on their own. We have to give them hope that they are going to have their rights." Hussein agreed that the uprising "has proved Israel was wrong in assuming that by occupying other people's territories, it would assure security for itself."

Mubarak also called on "courageous people in Israel" to reciprocate the offering of the olive branch made by his predecessor, the late Anwar Sadat, during his daring trip to Jerusalem in 1977. But Hussein argued that timidity was precisely Israel's problem. Referring to a December poll in the daily Yediot Aharonot showing that 54% of Israelis favor negotiations with Arafat's organization, Hussein said, "It is tragic that Israeli public opinion supports a dialogue with the P.L.O., yet the leadership in Israel is unable to move with enough vision and enough courage to seize this opportunity for making progress toward the establishment of a just peace." Arens remained unconvinced. "We certainly don't feel ((there is such a shift)) in the political arena," he said.

If Mubarak and Hussein simply wait for U.S. pressure on Israel, however, they could be profoundly disappointed. As Hussein noted, Palestinian or Israeli extremists could literally blow up the chances for peace. Meanwhile, Arab moderates may feel content to sit back rather than consider additional steps that could entice Israel into negotiations, like encouraging broad Arab recognition of Israel's right to exist. That, Hussein insists, will be "no problem" once there is a comprehensive Arab-Israeli settlement. "I have been asked many times, 'Do you recognize Israel?' " Hussein said. "I have suggested again and again that since we accepted Resolution 242, that was obviously a fact." But it is also a fact that Jordan's willingness has yet to result in a peace treaty with Israel, and the radical regimes in Syria, Iraq and Libya have given no sign that they are prepared to recognize Israel's right to exist.

Israel hopes to sidetrack an Arab-American drive by proffering a peace plan of its own. While Arens made it clear Israel would not follow the U.S. into talks with the P.L.O., that American decision has quickened Israeli diplomacy. Without acknowledging the reason, Arens said that Shamir would present a new peace initiative when he visits Washington later this winter. "I think at this stage of the game the ball's in our court," said Arens. "The ((Israeli)) government has got to enunciate its position, and I would hope that the U.S. would support an Israeli initiative."

All would do well to consider Hussein's counsel that conditions for peace have not been so ripe since the state of Israel was founded in 1948. The trend is toward moderation. Egypt has a treaty with Israel, Jordan at least wants to resolve the conflict, and the P.L.O. seems ready to talk rather than fight. Radical Arabs, said Mubarak, are increasingly feeling "cornered." At an Arab League meeting expected soon, Hussein will lead a moderate attempt to reinstate Egypt, expelled for signing the peace treaty with Israel in 1979. He also wants to take away the statutory authority of the radicals to paralyze moderate Arab initiatives with a veto in the Arab League. If those things happen, it should encourage the U.S. to persuade Israel -- perhaps without even having to resort to pressure -- to be more flexible about negotiations.

With reporting by Dean Fischer/Cairo and David S. Jackson/Amman