Reagan Democrats' Divided Loyalties

By Laurence I. Barrett

Donna Baker thought, last July, that she might well vote for Michael Dukakis. "I figured a change would be good," says this young working mother in Warren, Mich. Not anymore. Though usually loyal to her family's Democratic tradition, Baker has now decided on George Bush. Her reason? Baker answers firmly: "Dukakis' views on crime."

Baker's opinions and personal circumstances make her typical of a special -- and critical -- voting group: the Reagan Democrats. Ronald Reagan was the first Republican these white, working-class Americans supported for President. Together with other Democratic defectors, they represent 12% of the electorate. If Dukakis cannot recapture a large majority of them, he cannot make the race close. He is luring back those who put their kitchen-table finances at the top of their agenda. But among many others, he has been badly damaged by Bush's tough, shrewd appeals on crime, patriotism and "values."

Donna Baker's concerns begin just down the street. Her immediate neighborhood is safe enough, but drug dealers and prostitutes ply their trades nearby. The local junior high school is too rough; she will struggle to budget the money to send her two girls to a Catholic school. A secretary in an auto- parts factory, Donna and her husband Charles work split shifts to care better for their daughters. "We don't have time to argue," she laughs. If they did, politics could be the subject. Charles supports Dukakis. He worries about the loss of well-paying jobs. He earned $11.53 an hour in West Virginia as a skilled production worker in a coke-processing plant that closed in 1979. Today he works as a foreman in a nonunion shop for $8.80.

Warren and surrounding Macomb County went for Reagan by 2 to 1 in 1984, despite the pervasive presence of the United Auto Workers. Early this month, according to a Detroit News poll, the area was as evenly divided as the Baker household. Now it seems to be tilting toward Bush. Though the 6.8% unemployment rate is above the national average, Macomb has been recovering, and lower-paying jobs are available. They could be filled by blacks from neighboring Detroit, but public transportation is scarce and racial animosity plentiful. Detroit's black mayor, Coleman Young, is regarded as a "great Satan" in the white suburbs, according to Terry Gilsenan, a Republican district chairman. "This is a racially polarized area," he adds. Such sentiments work against Dukakis.

Ed and Sue Young credit the Republicans for Macomb's good times. Ed, a union member, tests meters for Detroit Edison and, with his wife, operates a small motel for extra income. He is glad he voted for Reagan because "the past eight years have been pretty good living." And he will stay with Bush, though he considers the Vice President "the lesser of two evils." Are the Youngs still Democrats? "I think I consider myself a Republican now," says Sue. "I never thought I'd say that."

Some 50 miles north, in Flint, the recession never ended, and more Reagan Democrats are returning to their roots. Reagan carried Genesee County only narrowly in 1984. With unemployment still at 14%, disillusion is palpable. Gerald Robinson, with 22 years of seniority, feels secure in his GM production job and agrees with Bush about capital punishment. But he will vote Democratic this time because he fears that Reaganomics is ruining American industry. James and Martha Hurry are doing all right today; their snug bungalow was paid off many years ago, and they receive $20,000 a year in pension payments. But Hurry, 72, worries about being wiped out financially if he has to enter a nursing home. He repents his vote for Reagan because "ten years ago, I thought I was pretty well off for a poor man. Now they're talking about taxing Social Security and taking away medical benefits."

Even in distressed Genesee, however, the Republicans have made converts. Pat Robertson made one of his strongest showings here during last year's Republican nominating fight. In the process, he lured many charismatic Christians into Republican ranks. Charles Siglow, 31, a charismatic, recently went back to work at Buick after an eleven-month layoff. But he believes Dukakis to be "an ultra, extreme liberal."

Voters like Siglow, the Hurrys and Youngs made up their minds months ago. But thousands of Reagan Democrats in Michigan, and perhaps millions in other critical states, are not quite sold yet. Which is why Dukakis and Bush were in Michigan last week, laboring for its 20 precious electoral votes.