The Big Senate Battlegrounds

By Hays Gorey

Democrats now hold an eight-seat majority in the Senate, and unless there is a big Republican sweep in November, they should maintain control. There are 33 seats at stake, 18 Democratic and 15 Republican. TIME's assessment:

CALIFORNIA. The seat occupied by Republican Pete Wilson is hardly warm: not since 1952 has its occupant been re-elected. To extend that tradition, Democratic Lieutenant Governor Leo McCarthy has been husbanding his cash for a final blitz to rescue his ailing campaign. Wilson is vulnerable for being wishy-washy; he withheld endorsement of the Reagan-Gorbachev INF treaty even longer than Senate Republican leader Bob Dole.

CONNECTICUT. Opposing his own political party most of the time makes renegade Republican Lowell Weicker a pest to the party pros. But he is their pest. His fabled contrariness (he waged a one-man battle against the party's antiabortion plank) attracts Democrats and independents. This makes it hard for state attorney general Joseph Lieberman, the appealing Democratic nominee, who can't go after Weicker's voting record hard because it is too similar to what his own would be.

FLORIDA. He doesn't use his real name, Cornelius McGillicuddy, but then neither did his grandfather, baseball immortal Connie Mack. But by whatever name, Congressman Connie Mack III has come up lucky in the battle for the seat of Democrat Lawton Chiles. First Chiles withdrew after announcing for re- election. Then the toughest Democrat, former Governor Reubin Askew, also bowed out. Finally, Congressman Buddy MacKay won the Democratic nomination with only a month left to zero in on the far-to-the-right Mack.

MINNESOTA. Democrat Hubert Humphrey III cried out to voters to stop comparing him with his beloved late father and start weighing him against his opponent, Senator Dave Durenberger. They have, and it may be helping. "Skip" Humphrey, the state's attorney general, has been slinging dirt at Durenberger on character issues. But Durenberger's senatorial bearing and flawless environmental record have given him a lead. If Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer- Labor Party is of a mind to, it could still rescue Humphrey.

MISSISSIPPI. Republican Trent Lott has been the heir presumptive to John Stennis' seat ever since the venerable Democrat lost a leg to cancer in 1984. The only question was when. Now that Stennis has retired, there are new questions. Democratic Congressman Wayne Dowdy is backed by the popular Stennis. But Dowdy, who enjoys strong support from blacks (one-third of the voting population), must cut into the white vote to win.

NEBRASKA. Even Republicans asked "Why?" when businessman David Karnes was appointed last year to fill a vacant Senate seat. Expectably, Karnes was challenged in the G.O.P. primary this year; unexpectedly, he won. But since advocating "fewer farmers" during a debate, he seems to have lost momentum. He is likely to be beaten by Bob Kerrey, a former Governor, former Debra Winger boyfriend and Viet Nam veteran.

NEW JERSEY. "Have we got a candidate!" Republicans chortled, when Pete Dawkins decided to challenge colorless Frank Lautenberg. A Rhodes scholar, Heisman trophy winner and once the youngest general in the Army, the squeaky- clean Dawkins seemed too good to be true. Apparently he is. Pilloried as a carpetbagger after moving from New York, Dawkins stoked the fire by declaring he could not stand the boredom of living in a small town, one of many missteps in an inept campaign. Lautenberg is now favored.

NEVADA. The press secretary to Nevada Republican Senator Chic Hecht recently observed that his boss is ignored by Senate colleagues except for the times when they are ridiculing him for his syntax-mangling style. With a billing like that from his own publicist, Hecht obviously has problems in his race against Democratic Governor Richard Bryan.

OHIO. Howard Metzenbaum, a gadfly who brays through one of the loudest trumpets in national politics, is portrayed as "too liberal" by Cleveland mayor George Voinovich. But blooper-prone Voinovich's attempt to link Metzenbaum to kiddie porn unleashed a backlash. During the G.O.P. Convention, Voinovich described himself as the leading candidate for next year's gubernatorial race, seeming to concede the Senate contest. He might as well.

RHODE ISLAND. Consistently one of the most Democratic states, Rhode Island nevertheless has a soft spot for stately Republican John Chafee. Lieutenant Governor Richard Licht is waging a vigorous challenge, but Chafee, a former Governor, is an elusive target.

WASHINGTON. Defeated in his re-election bid two years ago, Republican Slade Gorton believed his political career was over. Reincarnation took place when Republican Dan Evans decided to retire. Ousted because he paid little attention to constituents and traded his vote on a controversial judicial nomination, Gorton this year has been conducting "listening tours" of the state. His chances benefited from an expensive primary battle won by Democratic Representative Mike Lowry, who was promptly hospitalized with a bleeding ulcer.

WISCONSIN. Democrat William Proxmire used to pay the $145 filing fee, and that constituted his total campaign expenditure. This year it cost supermarket magnate Herbert Kohl $3 million of his own money just to succeed the retiring Proxmire as the Democratic nominee. Kohl, owner of the Milwaukee Bucks . basketball team, makes a virtue of his wealth: "a Senator just for you." He will face the only woman nominated for a Senate seat this year, Susan Engeleiter, a moderate who is Republican leader of the state senate.

WYOMING. A humorless ideologue who has criticized even Reagan for insufficient dedication to weapons systems, Malcolm Wallop has come under fire for not tending to the grass roots. Though he is not wildly popular, he remains a slight favorite over his Democratic challenger, state senator John Vinich.