Nicaragua Lashing Out on All Fronts

By John Greenwald

Only last spring, the civil war in Nicaragua, deep into its eighth year, seemed to be in a peaceful lull. The Marxist-oriented Sandinista government was meeting face to face with the U.S.-backed contras and loudly promising to install democracy in Managua. In Washington the House defied Reagan Administration pleas and voted down military support for the guerrillas. But last week, in a sudden burst of high-handed actions, the Sandinistas raised fresh doubts about their intentions and provoked forceful new White House calls for lethal aid to the contras.

The crackdown began when police used tear gas and truncheons to break up a right-wing rally last Sunday in the provincial town of Nandaime. More than 40 protesters were arrested, including four opposition leaders, who were later sentenced to six months in prison. Next day the government suspended the opposition daily La Prensa for 15 days and shut down Radio Catolica, run by the Roman Catholic Church. The moves brazenly violated President Daniel Ortega Saavedra's solemn vows to uphold civil rights. Meanwhile, the Sandinistas confiscated the vast San Antonio sugar plantation, the country's largest private business.

While La Prensa and Radio Catolica were being silenced, Foreign Minister Miguel d'Escoto Brockmann summoned U.S. Ambassador Richard Melton to his office. Melton, a career diplomat who arrived in Managua three months ago, listened as D'Escoto accused the U.S. embassy of fomenting unrest and then gave the Ambassador and seven other U.S. diplomats three days to leave the country.

The clampdown in Managua pushed already strained U.S.-Nicaraguan relations close to the breaking point. Declaring, "We are going to return the favor," President Reagan ordered the expulsion of Nicaraguan Ambassador Carlos Tunnermann and seven of his fellow diplomats. But the most potentially far- reaching U.S. response was a renewed drive for military aid for the contras. Though the issue was virtually dead before last week, Reagan pledged his support for a $47 million assistance package, introduced Wednesday by Senate Republican Leader Robert Dole, that includes $20 million for weapons and ammunition.

Ortega seems to have embarked on a calculated gamble. Recognizing that prospects for renewed lethal aid will probably dwindle as the U.S. presidential contest intensifies, the Sandinistas apparently seized the chance to flex their muscles. But the move could backfire. Resolutions condemning Managua's actions whipped through Congress by overwhelming votes (91 to 4 in the Senate; 385 to 18 in the House), and the crackdown could force congressional opponents of contra military aid to reverse field or risk being blamed for "losing" Nicaragua during the fall campaign. Even Democratic Senator Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, a persistent critic of U.S. policy in the region, conceded last week that lethal aid now stands a better chance of passing the Senate. Yet approval still seems all but impossible in the House.

For its part, Managua has amassed a sizable list of grudges and frustrations. Faced with continued economic decline and resentment at home, the Sandinistas felt compelled to rein in the opposition. At the same time, Managua blames the contras for scuttling the peace talks that broke off in early June and for subsequent cease-fire violations. Ortega was also displeased by Melton's practice of spending more time with opposition leaders than with Sandinista officials.

Some experts now look for Managua to launch an offensive to destroy the contras, perhaps as soon as early August. Government newspapers and radio stations have begun a drum roll of reports proclaiming that "the people" are demanding action against the rebels. An all-out attack by Nicaragua's 70,000- strong army would catch the contras at their weakest. Cut adrift by their U.S. patrons and torn by internal feuding, the guerrillas barely resemble a credible fighting force. About 6,000 rebels remain in Honduras, where the government is increasingly eager to see them leave, or are camped along the border. Only some 1,500 troops have filtered back into Nicaragua toward their ^ traditional bases of operation.

Meanwhile, the contra political leadership remains sharply divided between moderates headed by Alfredo Cesar, who is willing to continue talks with Managua, and hard-liners led by Adolfo Calero. Delegates to the contra governing assembly began a three-day meeting in the Dominican Republic last weekend to attempt to resolve the split by electing a new directorate.

No one was more galled by Managua's actions than Costa Rican President Oscar Arias Sanchez, whose peace plan remains the framework for the now suspended Sandinista-contra talks. Frustrated by the lack of progress, Arias passed word to Managua last Monday that he believed the contras could again be brought to the negotiating table by Aug. 1 if the Sandinistas would make a conciliatory gesture. Back came the message that Arias' idea was a good one. Two hours later, however, the Sandinistas closed La Prensa and Radio Catolica and expelled Melton.

"What the Sandinistas have done is to help those people who believe that the only way is through war," Arias said. "We have to choose between dialogue or more war." The Sandinistas seem to be leaning toward the second alternative, and soon.

With reporting by Ricardo Chavira/Washington and John Moody/Mexico City