Return of The Living Dead

By Margaret B. Carlson

The race for the Democratic nomination is beginning to look like a campaign of the living dead. Going into last week, the seven-man field had finally seemed to narrow to three alive-and-well candidates: Michael Dukakis, Jesse Jackson and Al Gore. But the Illinois primary somehow served as a reverse winnow, adding to the list of viable candidates rather than killing anyone off. Paul Simon, whose death in New Hampshire meant that he could not win a delegate anywhere on Super Tuesday, resurrected himself sufficiently to win as a favorite son. Richard Gephardt -- who was stillborn at the new year, resuscitated in Iowa and then died aborning in the South -- is taking advantage of the new murkiness to attempt a second coming this Saturday in Michigan. Suddenly, as a result of what Elaine Kamarck, an architect of the party's rules, calls "a failure to die," there are five again.

There were few lessons in the Illinois results other than further evidence of the party's fragmentation. Jesse Jackson, who came in second, failed to win more than 8% of the white vote. By coming in third, Dukakis showed that his message of better-me-than-a-brokered-conventi on did not turn out to be the inspirational theme he has been searching for. Gore, with a paltry 5%, demonstrated that his ability to win votes up North is no better now than it was before his Super Tuesday Border State victories.

About the only thing Illinois proved is that despite the obvious weaknesses of his opponents, Dukakis has not yet emerged strong enough to knock off any of them once and for all. As long as four white candidates stay in the race, Jackson could retain his lead in number of popular votes cast (he has 3.1 million so far, in contrast to 2.8 million for Dukakis) and continue to run second in delegates, even though the states still to vote have a lower percentage of blacks. It now seems almost certain that no candidate will win an outright majority by the end of the primary season, and it is becoming increasingly possible that neither Dukakis nor anyone else will reach the "critical mass" of delegate strength that will make it easy to corral enough strays in June to lock up the nomination.

While bartered-convention phobia did not catch on among Illinois voters, it strikes fear in the heart of Democratic Party Pooh-Bahs, who prefer a little cigar smoke swirling around the back rooms before the convention to a prime- time brawl on national television. To that end, Party Chairman Paul Kirk announced that he would seek a meeting with all the candidates after the New Jersey and California primaries on June 7 to urge consensus support behind an "inevitable nominee," a euphemism for a candidate who is not strong enough to be a full-fledged front runner but could be made one with a little help from his friends. One side effect would be to neutralize Jackson, and perhaps antagonize him. Mario Cuomo told Nightline's Ted Koppel that although he may remain uncommitted until June, he thinks the party should unite behind one of the surviving candidates to give him 51% before the convention. In a meeting with New Jersey's Democratic leadership, Bill Bradley crushed proposals for a favorite-son slate by announcing that he would endorse a candidate before the state's primary.

Democrats can expect little in the way of clarity from this Saturday's caucus in Michigan. Gephardt, once thought to be a natural there with his protectionist message, has been handicapped by a lack of money since his poor showing in the South. Gephardt may still be able to pull the "$48,000 Hyundai" out of the garage for some mileage around Detroit, but that is no substitute for his failure to win the support of the United Auto Workers.

Dukakis must do well in Michigan to prove, finally, that he can attract the Democrats' core blue-collar constituency. He has the endorsement of former U.A.W. President Douglas Fraser and a bulging wallet, but still no ability to generate much emotional attachment. Detroit Mayor Coleman Young's halfhearted quasi-endorsement is likely to hurt the Massachusetts Governor as much as help him. Says State Democratic Committee Member Morley Winograd: "It won't get him any white votes, in fact it could cost him white votes in the Detroit suburbs, and the black vote will go to Jesse."

Gore is making an effort in Michigan, picking up the endorsements of the party's top legislative leaders. But he suffers from playing out his "I'm one of you" message in the South, and he has yet to find another message. He flirted in Illinois with becoming the anti-Establishment candidate, a hard metamorphosis for a Senator's son who attended St. Albans and Harvard. But he seems most at home talking defense or microchips. The only passion he could muster in Illinois -- a speech about the Government's important role in the coming information revolution, delivered in front of a Cray X-MP/24 supercomputer -- is no more likely to find adherents in Rust Belt Michigan than it did in Illinois.

As the campaign drags on, the real race may devolve into a scavenger hunt for delegates. The particular target will be the 646 super-delegates -- those party leaders, Congressmen and state and local officials who will go to the convention nominally uncommitted. Says Mark Siegel, the national committeeman from Maryland: "We're being plastered with literature and state poll results. We're being told about trains and stations." But the departure of trains is not much of a threat when their engines have yet to build up much steam. So for now most party powers, like many voters, are waiting on the platform. It is hard enough just keeping track of who is coming and going.

With reporting by Laurence I. Barrett/Washington, with other bureaus