Kissinger The Pessimist

In 1973 and 1974, then Secretary of State Henry Kissinger won worldwide acclaim for his Middle East "shuttle diplomacy," which resulted in a series of agreements disengaging Israeli and Arab forces in the Sinai desert and the Golan Heights. Today Kissinger holds out little hope that his virtuoso performance can be duplicated by George Shultz.

"Secretary Shultz has a different deck of cards than I had," Kissinger told TIME Correspondent Bruce van Voorst in Washington last week. "When I was out there, the Israelis had the Egyptian Third Army surrounded in the Sinai and their army was pressing at the gates of Damascus. In addition, you now have a pair of extremely tough guys in ((Prime Minister Yitzhak)) Shamir and ((Foreign Minister Shimon)) Peres." Tougher than the U.S. might like, according to Kissinger. "Shultz doesn't know it, but it's in the nature of things that the Israelis won't settle until everyone's reached exhaustion, just to make sure they get a good deal."

By attempting to broker a solution at this point, Kissinger believes, the U.S. may do harm to its position as a neutral arbiter. "If Shultz doesn't watch his step," Kissinger warns, "he'll have the worst of all worlds. The Israelis will blame him for betrayal, and the Arabs will dismiss him as Israel's lawyer."

It could be more prudent not even to try to unstick the Middle East impasse, Kissinger believes: "It may be better not to get involved than to go there and have things go wrong." Is there no hope? Says Kissinger: "You've got to find some solution which balances the Arab need for self-esteem with Israeli security. I'm not sure it exists."