Afghanistan In Search of the Nearest Exit

By EDWARD W. DESMOND

After eight no-win years of engagement in the bloody Afghan war, the Soviets have made no secret of their impatience to get out. Just how impatient they are with the conflict, which has cost an estimated 20,000 Soviet and 1.2 million Afghan lives, became clearer last week during an official visit to Kabul by Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze. "We would like the year 1988 to be the last year of the stay of Soviet troops in your country," Shevardnadze told local reporters after two days of meetings with Afghan officials. Even more striking, the Foreign Minister hinted that Moscow was ready to pull out without assurances that a pro-Soviet coalition government would remain behind. Instead, he implied, Moscow might settle for a nonaligned Kabul regime.

In a Washington press conference the next day, U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz responded with a mixture of tough talk and fresh signs of flexibility. He welcomed Shevardnadze's remarks as "desirable" and added that the initial Soviet withdrawal should be "front-end loaded," meaning that large numbers of the 115,000 Soviet troops in Afghanistan should pull out quickly "so that once it starts, there's a certain inevitability to it." Shultz added a new demand, insisting that all Soviet military aid to Afghanistan cease after the pullout. On a conciliatory note, he reiterated that the U.S. would similarly cut off arms supplies for the mujahedin, Afghanistan's rebels. The U.S., he said, might taper off its arms shipments to the rebels as the Soviets retreated.

Western diplomats in Moscow indicated that they would reserve judgment about the significance of Shevardnadze's remarks until they show up as proposals at the U.N.-sponsored Afghan peace talks, which resume next month in Geneva. Said one Western official: "It is too soon to uncork the champagne." But both sides seem eager to lay the groundwork to make this next Geneva session the last.

The thorniest issue is how to constitute a government. Washington and Moscow would like to resolve the issue with some form of coalition between the ruling Afghan Communists and the mujahedin, but neither Afghan party likes the idea. Most mujahedin leaders reject outright any suggestion of sharing power with the Afghan Communists, who will be powerless without their Soviet backers. U.S. Under Secretary of State Michael Armacost raised the issue with rebel leaders last week in Islamabad but made no headway. Said Sayed Ahmed Gilani, chief of the National Islamic Front for Afghanistan: "We told Mr. Armacost that the future government in Kabul will be 100% Afghan, without any Communist in it."

Shevardnadze apparently had no better luck in Kabul. Najibullah, a former Afghan secret-police chief installed as Afghanistan's Communist leader 20 months ago, has been angling to ensure his own domination of any future government. Shevardnadze appears to be growing impatient, and he issued a thinly veiled warning to Afghans who place "personal aspirations above the interests of the nation." Or, more to the point, above Moscow's determination to bring Ivan home.

Reported by Mohammed Aftab/Islamabad and Nancy Traver/Washington

With reporting by Mohammed Aftab/Islamabad and Nancy Traver/Washington