China Balancing Act

By Susan Tifft

Precisely at 9 a.m. a bell sounded, and the officials milling around the Great Hall of the People scurried to their seats. As some craned their necks to get a good view, Deng Xiaoping, China's top leader, mounted the poinsettia- bedecked dais. Looking fit in a tailored Mao suit and vigorous beyond his 83 years, Deng beamed when the assembled 1,936 delegates gave him a standing ovation. Moments later, the other members of China's ruling gerontocracy limped into view. Leading them was Deng's fellow Politburo Standing Committee member, Conservative Chen Yun. Reportedly weakened by a stroke, Chen, 82, slowly toddled to his seat with the help of Zhao Ziyang, the Premier and acting party chief.

As the 13th Congress of the 46 million-member Chinese Communist Party officially opened last week, the contrast between the energetic reformer and the enfeebled conservative was starkly symbolic. The party conclave, the first since 1982, had long been seen as a watershed event, the meeting at which Deng would consolidate the controversial economic and political reforms he began in 1979. Less than a year ago, sinologists speculated that the octogenarians who have run the country since the death of Chairman Mao Zedong in 1976 would use the occasion to cede control to younger, reform-minded leaders. In the end Deng Xiaoping resigned from some powerful posts, but he will still remain in a key military position and will continue to be the final arbiter of Chinese political life.

What a difference a year makes. After months of intraparty squabbling, last week's session was less about consolidation than about compromise. To be sure, Zhao's keynote speech, long viewed as an index of whether Deng's program would move forward, was a ringing endorsement of modernization. But Zhao watered down that optimism by noting it would take longer than expected to make the reforms work. Moreover, Deng's dreams of transferring power to a loyal successor remained largely unrealized. Although the final makeup of the Politburo, its Standing Committee and the party Secretariat will not be known until early this week, it appears that the top positions will be divided almost evenly between reformers and conservatives. The result will be continuing stalemates that only Deng can break. Said a Western diplomat in Beijing: "Deng has made it clear that he will have to continue to run the show."

The flaw in Deng's retirement plan was that he bet on the wrong man. His handpicked successor, Hu Yaobang, 72, a keen reformer, was dismissed as party leader in January for failing to control student demonstrators who were demanding freedom and democracy.

Hu's ouster and the crackdown on intellectuals that ensued underscored the tensions between the past and the future that have bedeviled China in recent years. A new openness to foreign influences has brought rock music, motorcycles and even punk-style haircuts to China's cities. But the shock of the new is never easy, and many people are discomfited by the changes. An older generation regrets the passing of ancient traditions, and nearly everyone fears inflation, which was virtually unknown for more than 30 years but is now a growing problem. The result has been a continuing battle for China's next century, with reformers desiring relatively rapid modernization and conservatives advocating a more cautious approach.

The power struggle after Hu's fall only confirmed that despite Deng's efforts, China remains a nation dependent more on the power of a single leader than on institutions. "It's all right now because Deng is there," says University of Chicago Political Scientist Tang Tsou. "But he must establish a set of institutions that will outlast him."

Against this background, Zhao, 68, who was named acting party General Secretary after Hu's ouster and is expected to assume the full title this week, delivered an opening address that had something for everyone. He left no doubt that the central goal of the Chinese Communist Party was to "accelerate and deepen" economic and political change. But, he quickly added, any further change must come slowly. In a nod to conservatives, Zhao for the first time gave an ideological justification for Deng's market-oriented reforms. Because China is a "backward" country, he said, it will be in a "primary stage of socialism" until at least the year 2050, and the chief task will be production, not class struggle.

Zhao then turned to inflation. In the late 1940s the country suffered through one of history's worst cases of runaway prices. Mao brought that under control, and until recently the Chinese could be assured that the cost of most goods would be stable because they were set by the government. In 1984-85, however, Beijing eliminated price controls on all but 86 products and raw materials, setting off a burst of inflation that has not yet abated. For the first six months of this year, according to Beijing, inflation in urban areas ran at an annual rate of around 10%, and some Western economists estimate that the figure was closer to 20%. Accordingly, Zhao treaded lightly on the subject of price reform, reassuring delegates that a system of market prices would only be introduced gradually.

Zhao had harsh words, though, for China's bloated bureaucracy. He advocated the separation of government and party functions, beginning with the reduction of the thousands of committees, commissions and agencies that are the heart of the Communist Party's system of control. He also called for the introduction of a civil service system, complete with examinations and job appraisals.

With all the rhetoric out of the way, personnel shifts at the top of the party hierarchy are expected to take place this week. The most critical change will be on the five-member Standing Committee of the Politburo, the pinnacle of party power. Acting Party Leader Zhao is the only man likely to keep his seat. It has already been decided that seven veteran revolutionaries, including Deng Xiaoping, will step down from the Party Central Committee. Deng Liqun, the nemesis of many liberal-minded reformers, is also out of the Central Committee.

Precisely who will replace the older cadres on the Standing Committee was a closely guarded secret even late last week, but one surefire contender is Hu Qili, 58, a member of the Politburo and Secretariat. A former protege of Hu Yaobang (no relation), Hu quickly distanced himself after his mentor's fall and became a strong ally of Zhao. On the conservative side, the top candidate is Politburo and Secretariat Member Li Peng, 59, the adopted son of former Premier Zhou Enlai. Li, whose Soviet training predisposes him to central planning, is the leading candidate to succeed Zhao as Premier when the National People's Congress meets next March.

The remaining two seats -- or possibly four, if the Standing Committee is expanded to seven members, as some predict -- are expected to reflect a desire for balance between conservative and reform factions. Assuming the committee is not enlarged, Minister of Planning Yao Yilin, 70, a Chen protege, would probably round out the conservative side, with Vice Premier Qiao Shi, 63, in the reform camp.

How much clout Zhao will have in this kind of lineup is far from clear. Early this week he is expected to appoint at least six of his proteges to the eleven-member Party Secretariat, the group that carries out the day-to-day decisions of the Politburo. But despite this core of support, Zhao is generally considered to have been weakened by his agreement to give up the premiership in exchange for the party's top post. The job will not play to his strong suit -- economics -- and his power base in the party is thin.

The simultaneous ascension of Reformer Zhao and Conservative Li virtually assures that economic and political change in China will continue to be a product of compromise. "It's like having a two-party system where both parties are in at the same time," says Thomas Bernstein, chairman of Columbia University's department of Political Science. In such a situation, Deng will still wield considerable behind-the-scenes control. He succeeded last week in engineering constitutional changes that allowed him to remain as head of the Central Military Commission, the highest decision-making body of the armed forces, while stepping down from the Politburo's Standing Committee.

But even Deng cannot live forever. His inability to institutionalize the succession at the 13th Congress makes the prospect of a fierce power struggle down the road all too real. "What they have done is to set the stage for a coup after Deng dies," says a Western diplomat in Beijing. In the meantime, many Chinese simply hope that their diminutive leader will survive long enough to resolve the uncertainty. Said a university student in Beijing: "We must hope Mr. Deng lives ten more years." Or more.

With reporting by Jaime A. FlorCruz and Richard Hornik/Beijing