Taiwan Thirty-Eight Years Later . . .

By Howard G. Chua-Eoan

The year was 1949. Rapidly losing his battle with Mao Tse-tung for the Chinese mainland, Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek sent his son Chiang Ching-kuo to Taiwan. Strictly policing the island, the younger Chiang helped secure it for more than 1 million Nationalist refugees against both Communist infiltrators and the 7 million less-than-welcoming native Taiwanese. On May 19, 1949, martial law was imposed.

Last week, 38 years later, military rule was finally lifted. It was abolished by Chiang Ching-kuo, who succeeded his father as leader of Taiwan in 1975. According to a Western observer in Taipei, the ailing, 77-year-old Chiang "apparently realizes his time is short and wants to assure Taiwan's future political stability."

The Reagan Administration quickly applauded the move, urging "continued reform and the development of democratic institutions and processes." Taipei echoed Washington's optimism. Predicted Government Spokesman Shaw Yu-ming: "We will achieve full democracy by the year 2000."

Though leaders of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party condemned that timetable as "too slow," they grudgingly hailed Chiang's move. Said Chu Kao-cheng, a Progressive Party lawmaker in the Legislative Yuan: "I can't deny that basic human rights will be better off than before." Last week 23 prisoners and political dissidents were released. Still, the Progressive Party, which claims to speak for the native Taiwanese, is not about to slow its push for greater Taiwanese participation in government. Chiang, however, is unlikely to accept demands that undercut the near monopoly on political power held by his ruling party, the Kuomintang.

With the lifting of martial rule, civilians will no longer be tried by military tribunals. The military will also turn over to civilian authorities the power to censor publications. Despite these gains, however, many aspects of martial law, including restrictions on assembly and travel, will remain because of the passage of a new National Security Law by the Legislative Yuan late last month. The new law in effect continues to recognize Taiwan as an integral part of China. Taipei still considers itself the legitimate government for mainland China and rejects all calls for Taiwanese self- determination. Though Chiang has named several native Taiwanese to high posts in his party, the legislature remains largely closed to them. Only 64 of the 319 seats in the Yuan are filled by election; nearly all the remaining 255 seats are held indefinitely by mainlanders who were elected in China before the 1949 exodus.

Despite some opposition to his authoritarian regime, Chiang remains personally popular, even among the 80% of the country's population that is Taiwanese. Indeed, the social stability resulting from martial law may have contributed to the country's impressive economic performance. An island of farmers with no major exports in 1949, Taiwan is now the world's 15th largest trading nation, manufacturing industrial products ranging from microchips to machine tools.

Chiang's gradual approach to liberalization is not likely to satisfy the political yearnings of the Democratic Progressives. Yet the opposition, which claims a membership of only 7,000, in contrast to the Kuomintang's 2.2 million, is not likely to pose a significant challenge anytime soon. Still technically illegal until a "civics organization law" is passed at the end of this year or early next, the Democratic Progressives suffer from a bad case of factionalism, which is certain to be aggravated by the recent release of long-imprisoned opposition leaders. Now that they are free again, they are sure to be impatient to reclaim their old political roles.

With reporting by Donald Shapiro/Taipei and Bing W. Wong/Hong Kong