It Ain't Over Till It's Over

By Michael Duffy/Washington

Lieut. Colonel Oliver North spent nearly three years coordinating arms purchases and helping to raise money for the contra rebels fighting in Nicaragua. But none of North's secret activities may prove as vital to the rebels as his testimony before the Iran-contra committees. As millions of Americans watched on television, North pleaded passionately for support of efforts to overthrow Nicaragua's Marxist Sandinista junta. He was even permitted to deliver his patented fund-raising pitch, minus the projection of 57 slides that usually accompany the spiel. Holding a photograph of a makeshift contra grave, North, his voice choking, told the legislators, "Gentlemen, we've got to offer them something more than the chance to die for their own country and the freedoms that we believe in."

Ollie's salesmanship provided the opportunity for long-demoralized contra backers at the White House and State Department to mount a new campaign for aid. As a Washington Post/ABC News poll indicated that public support for military aid to the contras rose to 43% on July 15, from 29% on June 1, White House Spokesman Marlin Fitzwater called North's testimony "helpful." President Reagan echoed North in his weekly radio commentary. "The American people are tired of the off-on again policy in Central America," he said.

The Administration may soon ask Congress to approve long-term aid to the contras of perhaps $150 million over 18 months, up from the $100 million narrowly okayed last fall for fiscal 1987. That would keep the rebels in beans and bullets until Ronald Reagan leaves office.

The contras' efforts in the field have also given a boost to their cause. The Administration says the rebels have put nearly 15,000 soldiers inside Nicaragua, up from 5,000 last December. Last week the contras announced that 500 soldiers attacked and overran a strongly held Sandinista garrison at San Jose de Bocay in north-central Nicaragua. Although the Defense Ministry in Managua announced fewer casualties and a much less successful assault than contra leaders claimed, the insurgents said it was their biggest victory since the rebellion began six years ago. Contra military progress could help swing moderate lawmakers in favor of continued funding when the issue comes to a vote this fall.

Yet opponents remain confident that Congress will refuse to renew the funding. "Even after six days of Ollie North, there is still no clear majority in favor of contra aid," said Michigan Congressman Dave Bonior, chief deputy Democratic whip. "I think we have an excellent chance of cutting off aid." Predictions of a complete cutoff were widespread last fall when it was first learned that the Administration had been circumventing congressional restrictions on support for the rebels. But lawmakers now admit that any new aid package must be considered apart from the scandal. "With North's testimony, there's obviously a mood in Congress that the issue of contra aid needs to be handled on its merits," admits California Democrat Leon Panetta, a contra opponent.

Democrats are particularly sensitive to North's complaint that Congress has been a fickle patron of the rebels. One compromise may be to approve continued economic aid for Central American democracies but with a lower amount of military aid than the President requests. Another would be to approve "phase- out" funds to pay for contra resettlement. "Nobody's talking about no money," said Democratic Congressman David Obey of Wisconsin, another opponent. "It is going to be difficult to shut off the contras."