India End of an Enchanted Honeymoon

By EDWARD W. DESMOND

"Failure," said Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, 42, last week, "is part of any mission of this magnitude." Gandhi was comforting India's space scientists after the country's newest rocket ended its maiden flight in a watery crash, a fate that also befell an American Atlas-Centaur rocket later in the week. But Gandhi could easily have been speaking of even more unhappy news that reached him the same day. In two of three state elections, his Congress (I) Party had suffered major setbacks at the hands of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the strongest of the country's several Communist parties. The defeats in the states of West Bengal and Kerala seemed to highlight a growing disenchantment not only with the Congress Party but with the once highly popular Prime Minister.

Indeed, so resounding were the setbacks that the victory by Gandhi's party, as the junior partner of a coalition, in the state of Jammu and Kashmir offered little consolation. In the past 18 months the Congress Party has lost state elections in Punjab, Assam and Mizoram. Gandhi appeared willing to live with these defeats because they temporarily quieted rebellious local ethnic and religious parties. There were, however, no such considerations in Kerala and West Bengal. Even more devastating, the loss of Kerala marked the first time Gandhi's party was out of power in all four south Indian states.

At the national level, Congress still controls 75% of the seats in Parliament, but the losses have spotlighted serious declines in the party's popularity. Gandhi has political troubles on other fronts, including a feud with India's President, Giani Zail Singh. Capturing a widespread mood in the country, the Calcutta Telegraph declared last week, "The growing questions about Mr. Gandhi's abilities are taking their toll."

All this is a startling change from the situation little more than two years ago, when Indians voted the Congress Party into office by a landslide. The vote was a show of confidence in Gandhi only seven weeks after his mother, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, was assassinated by Sikh bodyguards. Gandhi cultivated an image as a young, honest politician who was determined to modernize the economy and clean up the Congress Party, whose members he said in 1985 "follow no principle of public morality." Today, none of those goals has been fulfilled, and Gandhi seems to have lost his golden electioneering touch. He made four campaign swings in March through West Bengal (pop. 60 million). Referring to the Communist government of West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu, 72, Gandhi repeatedly exhorted the crowds to "smash the red fort of Marxism."

The Prime Minister seemed to have little effect on the Communists' public support. Local Congress Party officials were widely regarded as political hacks, while the Marxist candidates could point to ten years of relatively good government under their rule. The Communists have distributed tracts of farmland to landless peasants and kept government corruption in check. The party, which broke with Moscow in 1964, is hardly doctrinaire. Chief Minister Basu, for example, is coaxing multinational companies to invest in West Bengal.

Although aware of the Communists' strength, Gandhi was shocked by the loss of 13 of the 53 Congress Party seats in the 294-seat West Bengal assembly. When he heard the results in New Delhi, his face dropped and he muttered, "That's bad. I thought we would do better in Bengal." Says Pran Chopra, a political analyst: "He demonstrated very poor political judgment. When the local wing of the party stinks, there is little he can do."

In Kerala (pop. 30 million), the United Democratic Front coalition government, led by Congress Party Chief Minister Kannoth Karunakaran, seemed due for a fall as corruption scandals surfaced one after another. The Communists joined five other parties to win victory under the banner of the Left Democratic Front. Editorialized the Indian Express: "The people of Kerala have thrown out a coalition that was rotten to the core."

Only victory in Jammu and Kashmir (pop. 6.5 million), a predominantly Muslim state in northern India, saved Gandhi and his party from total defeat. Last November, Gandhi and Farooq Abdullah, leader of the Muslim-dominated National Conference, put aside old enmities to work together. The grouping took 60 of the 73 state assembly seats contested.

Even as Gandhi tries to assess the damage from the poor showings, he will have to dodge troubles in the capital. Foremost is his feud with President Zail Singh, who has accused Gandhi of failing to keep him informed of national matters as required by the Indian constitution. Gandhi denied the allegation before Parliament, but Zail Singh wrote to Gandhi, "As you are aware, the factual position is somewhat at variance with what has been stated by you." Gandhi has yet to escape his embarrassing position. He is also under fire for shifting Cabinet members almost at whim, a practice his party finds demoralizing. Says one friend: "I am not sure that there are people around him anymore who talk frankly to him."

Because national elections are two years off, Gandhi is secure in office for now. But political analysts say that if he does not soon regain the vote- getting talents he showed in 1984, he could face a rebellion in his party's ranks. The next test will come in elections sometime before July in Haryana state, where Congress now governs with a strong majority. Following Congress's defeats last week, Gandhi will undoubtedly view that election as a mission of considerable magnitude.

With reporting by Ross H. Munro/New Delhi