Japan

By Barry Hillenbrand/Tokyo

Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone, an adroit political tactician, led his ruling Liberal Democratic Party to a sweeping victory last summer in both houses of the Diet, the Japanese parliament. For his historic win, he was rewarded with an unusual one-year extension in office, becoming the longest- serving Japanese Prime Minister in 15 years.

But Nakasone's success has started to turn sour. Last week the L.D.P. suffered an embarrassing 64% to 30% defeat at the hands of the opposition Socialist Party in a special election to fill a Diet seat in a district long regarded as a ruling-party stronghold. A poll released last week by the daily Asahi Shimbun reported that support for Nakasone has dropped over the past three months from 39% to 25%. And in cities around the country, leftist unions have joined hands with conservative shopkeepers to braid hangmen's nooses that are used on effigies of the Prime Minister in protest demonstrations.

The chief reason for Nakasone's sagging fortunes is his attempt to include an unpopular 5% sales levy in a comprehensive tax-reform proposal. Although the measure for many consumers would be offset by lower income tax rates, it has riled even some members of Nakasone's party. Boasts Socialist Leader Takako Doi: "We are seeing an outpouring among conservatives angry with the sales tax because it violates Nakasone's election pledge not to impose new taxes." Nakasone retorts, somewhat lamely, that the long list of goods and firms exempt from the measure qualifies it as merely a "medium-sized" new tax, not the "large-scale"levy that he had promised to avoid. The opposition has vowed to transform a set of local elections, to be held in April, into an informal national referendum on the sales tax -- and Nakasone's leadership.

In the meantime, the uproar over the tax proposal has paralyzed the Diet. Last week, nearly two months behind schedule, the Diet's Budget Committee finally opened debate on the budget for the new fiscal year that begins April 1. But legislators will probably be unable to reach agreement before they recess to campaign in the local elections. Meanwhile, the Diet will be required to pass a provisional budget to pay the government's bills.

Nakasone is not required to leave office until October. Not long ago he was rumored to be hoping for yet another extension. Now leading L.D.P. contenders for his job evidently smell blood. Last week former Foreign Minister Shintaro Abe, one of three likely successors to Nakasone, abruptly canceled a visit to the U.S. planned for April. Abe explained that he was needed to campaign for the L.D.P. in the local elections. He did not have to add that, for Nakasone, April could well be the cruelest month -- and not a good time for ambitious politicians to be out of town.