The Philippines

By Sam Allis

It did not take long for the agreement to unravel. Barely two days after the 60-day cease-fire lapsed, heavy fighting erupted in Lupao, a village 90 miles north of Manila. Eighteen people, among them twelve civilians, died in an early morning fire fight between an army patrol and a band of heavily armed Communist insurgents. Witnesses later charged that seven civilians had been massacred by government troops during the clash. By week's end, the unofficial death toll had grown to more than 70, including 41 civilians. With each new report of violence, any hope of reconciliation between the rebels and the government of President Corazon Aquino all but disappeared. Declared Aquino: "The truce is over."

The President, for her part, seemed intent on exonerating the military from any blame for the breakdown. "I know that you and I did our best to explore the path of negotiations to the utmost," she told a group of soldiers at Camp Aguinaldo, the armed forces headquarters near Manila. Still, Aquino held hope that negotiations might be renewed, at least on a regional level. The insurgents rebuffed the idea outright as a "malicious move to sow dissension and division within insurgent ranks." Said a rebel leader: "This is the most important phase of our struggle, and we shall do everything to kill Cory's soldiers." Countered Defense Minister Rafael Ileto: "We won't allow anyone to threaten us. We are prepared. I think we are in a better position to meet them now than we were six or eight months ago."

Ironically, renewed hostilities in the 18-year-old war against the Communist guerrillas could improve Aquino's shaky standing with the military. Many officers who believe that her government has been too soft on the rebels have been itching for an all-out brawl with the insurgents. Few doubt that dissidents in the military still present the gravest threat to Aquino's political survival, despite several failed coup attempts in the past year. "What you have seen so far was nothing more than a warm-up of the jayvees," warns a disgruntled colonel. "You haven't seen the first team in action. They want a government that is prepared to lead them in a full-scale war to break the back of the insurgency."

The President formally consolidated her leadership last week by swearing to uphold and defend the new constitution, which was ratified by 78% of the population on Feb. 2. Said Aquino: "The night is over." Not everyone was so sure. In Washington, a Pentagon spokesman put U.S. worries this way: "We think Aquino has a counterinsurgency plan. The question is, Can it work? Maybe it can, maybe it can't. The forces still need training."

Aquino quickly sought to assure members of the armed forces that she intends to move decisively against the Communists. First she met with 20 middle-level officers to hear their grievances. She promised, among other things, to create a committee to investigate human rights violations by rebels. Reason: the military has complained that the Communists have not been held accountable for violations they have committed. Aquino made her position clear at midweek during her address before 400 soldiers at Camp Aguinaldo. "Send this message out to all our troops so that none may be misled to relax their vigilance to their peril and that of the people they are charged to protect," she told the troops. "The new armed forces will resume operations against the insurgents. We shall have law-and-order throughout the country."

That may not have been the green light that some officers wanted to initiate full-scale operations against the 23,500-strong rebel forces, but it was a start. "During the cease-fire, we kept the sword sharpened," vowed a high-ranking officer. "Now we will use it." He described the President as a "lot smarter than we gave her credit for. She gave the Communists enough rope, and they hanged themselves. They planned to seize power without a major battle. Now they will have to fight." Others were less impressed with Aquino's handling of the rebels. "She gave them a status they never earned," snapped a disgruntled officer. "It was like surrender. Marcos showed us the arrogance of corruption, and she the arrogance of righteousness."

On balance, Aquino has managed to improve her stature with her troops. But as long as there are dissidents within the officer corps, she cannot totally trust the armed forces. Moreover, she will badly need the military's help if, as expected, major fighting erupts soon. "The insurgents are now appearing in larger contingents than ever," said former Defense Minister Juan Ponce Enrile last week. Some military officers are convinced that the rebels will take the fight from the countryside to the cities, where they can exploit telecommunications, transportation systems and power networks.

Although the Aquino government has ambitious plans for the badly needed economic recovery of the country, it appears that those goals will have to be put on hold for the time being. Says Randy David, a political scientist at the University of the Philippines: "It is clear that her top priority is the insurgency."

With reporting by Dean Brelis and Nelly Sindayen/Manila