Flocking Together on Trade

By GEORGE J. CHURCH

Congress has been compared to an aviary whose inhabitants tend to band together in tiny groups that flap around in circles. But every now and then all the birds wing in tight formation to the same destination. It happened last year on tax reform and drug legislation. As the 100th Congress gets to work, the flock is forming early. This time its goal is to pass a trade bill, one that, for a change, will not be shot down by President Reagan's veto.

The prospects are excellent because the U.S. trade deficit is so dreadful. From less than $40 billion in 1981, the excess of U.S. imports over exports increased to more than $170 billion last year. Factories are closing, and the growth of the U.S. economy is being stunted. "The record of this Congress will be measured by how it deals with this issue," says Senate Majority Leader Robert Byrd.

Some 80 lawmakers and trade experts gathered before TV cameras last week at a special conference called by House Speaker Jim Wright. Top Republicans stayed away, fearful that the conference would turn into a round of Reagan bashing. Actually, though, most speakers sounded less partisan than perplexed. They stressed the tangled roots of the trade deficit, including the movements of currency markets, Third World debt, varying wage policies in other trading nations, even American business strategies and attitudes toward work: all matters beyond the ready reach of U.S. law.

Nonetheless, Wright pledges to call up a trade bill for House floor debate in May, and the Senate is working on a similar schedule. In the interest of getting something on the books, the Democrats, who control both chambers, are backing away from the protectionist provisions that caused Free-Trader Reagan to block previous bills.

The White House seems to be in an if-you-can't-lick-'em-join-'em mood. Late last week Ronald Reagan's speechwriters were still circulating competing drafts of the State of the Union address the President is to deliver Tuesday night. One point not in much dispute is that the President will stress the need to restore U.S. "competitiveness." He plans to propose some form of retraining for workers, a loosening of antitrust laws to enable American companies to band together against foreign competition, and increased federal assistance to American research and development. Ohio Congressman Bill Gradison, a key Republican on the House Budget Committee, says the President's aides "have judged that there will be a trade bill and signaled their willingness to cooperate."

These aides regard Tuesday's State of the Union speech as Reagan's golden -- and perhaps last -- chance to reassert his leadership. The address has assumed near epic public relations proportions because Reagan has pretty much been under wraps since Iranscam erupted in late November. Following his prostate operation in early January, says one White House official, Nancy Reagan "was yelling -- and I mean yelling -- insisting that her husband be given the same four-to-six-week recovery time that any other man would get." So virtually every appearance for six weeks has been canceled except the State of the Union. As a result, his aides are hyping that single half-hour speech, written by others and read off a TelePrompTer, as an event of such magnitude that it will reassert Reagan's vigorous leadership all by itself.

With reporting by Michael Duffy/Washington