American Notes Marriage

As a researcher at the U.S. Census Bureau, Jean Moorman was besieged with calls from incredulous friends and reporters last February. A Yale-Harvard study had estimated that only 2.6% of college-educated women who were still single at 40 were likely ever to marry. Unmarried 30-year-old college graduates were not much better off: only 20% were likely to wed. Skeptical, Moorman decided to do a study of her own. Her preliminary report, released last week, has cheer for post-20s women who hope to exchange first-time vows.

Using projections from the 1980 census, Moorman estimates 66% of college- educated 30-year-old women will someday marry, as will 23% of 40-year-olds and 11% of 45-year-olds. She concedes her figures may be a bit high, but believes the Yale-Harvard numbers, which are based on a different statistical model, are too low. Says Moorman: "I just didn't think life should be that way."

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