South Africa

Like many African leaders, Zambian President Kenneth Kaunda has repeatedly called for economic sanctions against South Africa. He has even threatened to withdraw from the Commonwealth if Britain fails to punish Pretoria. Yet Kaunda's country can ill afford sanctions. Landlocked Zambia, already suffering through its worst recession since independence in 1964, buys much of its industrial and agricultural equipment from Pretoria and has almost two- thirds of its non-oil imports shipped through South Africa. If the West were to impose sanctions on South Africa, economic necessity, compounded by a sense of vengeance, would probably move Pretoria to stop all those exports, virtually paralyzing Zambia. Kaunda has admitted that "many of us would suffer, and perhaps starve."

That sad paradox is repeated, indeed intensified, throughout the black nations of the region. Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland depend upon Pretoria for all their oil. Lesotho gets all its electricity from South Africa. Almost every export and import of the three countries travels through South Africa. As if that were not enough, Pretoria's official exports within the continent have risen by 40% this year, and promise to reach a record $800 million. Any Western blow against South Africa could amount to a killer blow against many of the so-called frontline states. Warns a South African diplomat in London: "Whereas it would take years, perhaps longer, to bring South Africa's economy to its knees, those of the frontline states could be in shambles within months."

In addition, South Africa has threatened that it might retaliate against sanctions by expelling the 350,000 contract laborers from neighboring black states who hold down jobs within the country. Since each migrant worker supports an estimated six people at home, roughly 2 million black Africans would be quickly stripped of their livelihood. Tiny Lesotho, to take one example, would not only be flooded with 140,000 returning workers, equivalent to more than 75% of its wage-labor force, but would also be deprived of their salary remittances, which currently exceed the country's entire gross domestic product. Earlier this year South Africa showed how it could use its economic might against Lesotho, which had been harboring anti-Pretoria activists. South Africa put up an economic blockade, and within 19 days there was a military takeover.

Many Western countries, therefore, fear that if they do impose sanctions on South Africa, they will have to bail out the black nations struck by South African reprisals. The U.S. has already made it clear to the frontline states that it cannot compensate them for their possible losses. Britain, whose ties with southern Africa are even closer, has been still firmer. When Zimbabwean Prime Minister Robert Mugabe called for South African sanctions at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting last October, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher replied with a stern and stinging warning. "If you want to cut your own throat," she said, "don't come to me for a bandage."