Japan Tight Spot

In politics, it is pitch-black even an inch in front of one's nose. So goes a Japanese proverb. And so went Japanese politics last week as Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone tried to fashion a strategy that would keep him in office beyond October, when the rules of his Liberal-Democratic Party (L.D.P.) require that he step down.

Nakasone had hoped for a surge of support from his party's power brokers following the seven-nation economic summit in Tokyo last month to pave the way toward an unprecedented third term. Instead, he was widely denounced for his handling of the meeting. His vaunted friendship with President Reagan produced no progress on stabilizing the yen, which has risen more than 30% against the dollar since September, cutting into the competitiveness of Japanese exports. After lobbying for rigid caps on currency fluctuations, Nakasone reluctantly went along with the other summit leaders and agreed to a vague system of monitoring exchange rates. To make matters worse, he appeared to bend to American wishes by agreeing to an antiterrorist statement that singled out Libya. Historically, Japan has tried to avoid antagonizing Arab states, including Libya, on which it depends for oil.

Since early spring, Nakasone loyalists in the L.D.P. have made no secret of their desire to promote him for another term as Prime Minister. Their hopes were buoyed by the Prime Minister's uncommon popularity and out-front style. Over the past month, besides serving as host to the Tokyo summit, Nakasone has presided over ceremonies marking Emperor Hirohito's 60th year on the throne, and feted the Prince and Princess of Wales during their six-day visit to Japan. A new poll released last week by the Tokyo daily Yomiuri Shimbun showed support for the Prime Minister at a robust 54.5%.

Under the circumstances, however, popularity is not much use to Nakasone. He is forbidden by his party's constitution to serve more than two consecutive two-year terms as party president. His strategists hoped to get around that rule by calling for snap elections in the lower house of parliament late in June to boost his standing and give him the clout to change the party rules. But leaders of rival L.D.P. factions, including former Prime Ministers Takeo Fukuda and Zenko Suzuki, immediately objected to the plan.

The Prime Minister's scheme appeared to have collapsed early in May, when House Speaker Michita Sakata attached a rider to a court-ordered reapportionment bill requiring a waiting period that effectively postponed lower-house elections for 30 days. The delay prevented Nakasone from dissolving the lower house in time to call new parliamentary elections.

Undaunted, Nakasone's planners came up with a last-ditch ploy: to call the lower house of parliament into special session to debate relief measures for the yen. By preventing parliament from recessing, the Prime Minister could exercise his power to dissolve the lower house and call elections. If that happens, political observers give Nakasone a good chance of revising the party's restrictive rule. "It is a document that is easy to change," said an L.D.P. official. If Nakasone fails in his bid for new elections, however, his chances for another term are slim indeed.